2022 年预测:科技飞轮越转越快,新一年又将走向何方

2021 年已结束,种种量变经过了一整年的积累,产生了质的变化。在 2022 年伊始,我们先简单回顾一下 2021 年吧。

在过去这一年间,财富还是飞速地流向巨佬的钱包。

特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・马斯克(Elon Musk)的个人净资产增长了 870 亿美元 —— 赚的钱比福特汽车公司市值还高。谷歌的两位创始人拉里・佩奇(Larry Page)和谢尔盖・布林(Sergey Brin)的资产净值分别增长了 460 亿美元和 430 亿美元。此外,脸书创始人马克・扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)和亚马逊创始人杰夫・贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)的资产净值也分别增长了 210 亿美元和 40 亿美元。

与此同时,苹果公司市值逼近 3 万亿美元,比一年前增加了约 7000 亿美元 —— 相当于多出来个沙特阿拉伯的全年 GDP。加密货币的市值则从 7700 亿美元增长到了 2 万多亿美元,巅峰时期总市值也曾逼近 3 万亿美元。

互联网用户新增 2.22 亿 —— 比每年平均出生人数还多了近 9000 万。目前,全球互联网用户数量离 50 亿大关仅有“1 亿之遥”。

一年之间累计的种种宏大数字,凸显出互联网世界的波澜壮阔。

虽然席卷全球的疫情造成了大规模失业,将全球不平等进一步推向极端境地,并导致超 530 万人死亡。但也因为疫情,大家都只能居家活动,盯着手机屏幕,刷各种视频和文字内容,以此打发时间,许多新概念也随之涌现出来。

元宇宙、非同质化代币(NFT)、去中心化组织(DAO)和去中心化金融(DeFi)等新概念也井喷。许多新术语在一年前公众还闻所未闻,但现在,人们对这些术语已经耳熟能详。

21 世纪仅仅过了 21 年,就已经进入到曾经难以想象的世界。无人驾驶汽车、智能手机、社交媒体…… 人类社会已是沧海桑田。展望未来,一个令人难以想象的、变革更为快速的世纪,很可能已经近在咫尺。

正式进入 2022 年,元宇宙的世界在向人们招手,汽车将更加自动化,手机的影像技术将更强大,或许无人机投递包裹,深度伪造(deepfake)技术将大行其道,基于去中心化区块链技术的 Web3 将成为互联网的核心。

新的一年,科技行业无疑还会换上新的面貌,我们不清楚它会变得更好,还是更糟?只有一点可以确定:无论又有哪些赛道脱颖而出,我们都会看到大把资金、还有不断重复的新故事。

外媒根据 2021 年的报道资料

对 2022 年海外科技或将发生的大事件进行了诸多预测,新浪科技从中精选,梳理出 15 大事件预测、10 大新兴技术预测。

15 大事件预测

2021 is over. After a whole year of accumulation, various quantitative changes have produced qualitative changes. At the beginning of 2022, let’s briefly review 2021.
In the past year, wealth has flowed rapidly to the wallets of giants.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s personal net worth has increased by US$87 billion-making money more than the market value of Ford Motor Company. The two founders of Google, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have increased their net assets by US$46 billion and US$43 billion, respectively. In addition, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg (Mark Zuckerberg) and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos (Jeff Bezos) also increased their net assets by US$21 billion and US$4 billion, respectively.
At the same time, Apple’s market value is approaching US$3 trillion, an increase of about US$700 billion from a year ago-equivalent to one more Saudi Arabia’s annual GDP. The market value of cryptocurrencies has grown from US$770 billion to more than US$2 trillion. At its peak, the total market value has also approached US$3 trillion.
There are 222 million new Internet users – nearly 90 million more than the average number of births per year. At present, the number of global Internet users is only “100 million away” from the 5 billion mark.
Various grand figures accumulated in one year highlight the magnificence of the Internet world.
Although the global epidemic has caused massive unemployment, it has further pushed global inequality to extremes and caused more than 5.3 million deaths. But also because of the epidemic, everyone can only do activities at home, staring at the screen of the mobile phone, and swiping various video and text content to pass the time, and many new concepts have emerged.
Metacosm, non-homogeneous tokens (NFT), decentralized organizations (DAO) and decentralized finance (DeFi) and other new concepts have also blown out. Many new terms were unheard of by the public a year ago, but now people are familiar with these terms.
Only 21 years have passed in the 21st century, and it has entered into a world that was once unimaginable. Driverless cars, smart phones, social media… Human society is already in the vicissitudes of life. Looking to the future, an unimaginable century with more rapid changes may very close at hand.
Entering 2022 officially, the world of Metaverse is beckoning people, cars will be more automated, mobile phone imaging technology will be more powerful, maybe drones will deliver packages, deepfake technology will become popular, based on decentralized blockchain The technical Web3 will become the core of the Internet.
In the new year, the technology industry will undoubtedly take on a new look. We don’t know whether it will get better or worse? Only one thing is certain: no matter which tracks stand out, we will see a lot of money and new stories that are constantly repeated.
Foreign media has made many predictions on the major events that may occur in overseas science and technology in 2022 based on the report data in 2021. Sina Technology selected from them and sorted out 15 major event forecasts and 10 major emerging technology forecasts.
15 Major Events Predictions 1. Apple and Google are forced to provide third-party payments. The US Congress may pass targeted antitrust legislation, forcing Apple and Google to allow competing payment providers to make in-app purchases and increasing the budget of regulators.
In addition, a wider series of bills will force technology giants such as Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon to make acquisitions difficult.
2. Apple may acquire a certain auto manufacturer whose purpose is to acquire auto manufacturing skills and scale to develop and manufacture future electric and semi-automatic vehicles.
Currently, Apple is advancing self-driving car technology, with the goal of launching an electric car as early as 2024. There are reports that Apple is visiting supply chains and automakers in Asia to prepare for mass production of Apple Car electric vehicles in 2024.
3. Waymo will be listed in the new year. Waymo, an autonomous driving startup under Google’s parent company Alphabet, will apply for listing to give employees the opportunity to obtain liquidity and increase the company’s valuation. In the latest round of financing in 2021, Waymo’s valuation has stagnated at approximately US$30 billion.
After the IPO, Waymo will become the largest self-driving public company in the field. Other listed companies include Aurora with a market value of US$11.5 billion, and Tucson Future, an autonomous truck developer with a market value of approximately US$8 billion.
4. Tesla may sign an investment agreement with a Chinese battery manufacturer. Tesla may sign a large-scale investment agreement with a Chinese battery manufacturer. This is also why Tesla caters to the Chinese market and continues to grow battery demand. , Part of the effort to lock in supply.
It is expected that Tesla CEO Elon Musk will go to China and announce the establishment of joint ventures, R&D laboratories or major investments to follow the example of other technology companies such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Apple.
5. Microsoft can hardly escape antitrust review. The current round of antitrust storm hits the technology giants, but Microsoft is relatively not involved. But in the coming year, the software giant will face stricter scrutiny.
6. Amazon may spin off AWS cloud business Amazon will eventually decide to spin off AWS cloud business. For many years, Wall Street analysts have been calling for Amazon to divest its AWS cloud computing business, but Andy Jassy, ​​the former CEO of AWS business and current Amazon CEO, has always dismissed the idea.
The situation may change today, partly because the government’s regulatory review of Amazon has become more stringent. Another key factor is that AWS business CEO Adam Selipsky (Adam Selipsky) previously promoted the listing of big data company Tableau Software, and he is also a trusted deputy to Jassy.

7. The price of Bitcoin may exceed US$100,000. In 2022, the price of Bitcoin may exceed the US$100,000 mark, breaking the current record high of US$69,000. Although the cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, people’s interest in Bitcoin is increasing day by day. The widespread adoption of digital cryptocurrency should boost the price of “the most widely held digital currency” (Bitcoin). In addition, the price of the Avax token will more than double from the previous historical high of $146 to $300. 8. Meta or the acquisition of a game studio Facebook parent company Meta Platforms will acquire a major video game franchise and the studio responsible for this franchise. In addition to providing a large-scale game to promote the sales of Quest 2 VR headsets, Meta will also use this acquisition to position Quest as an alternative to Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony game consoles. 9. YouTube may launch an NFT market YouTube will launch a market for creators to sell NFT (non-homogeneous tokens). YouTube has always been a pioneer when it comes to providing a way to make money for its video creators. Moreover, as the company faces more competition from other social networks, the first launch of the NFT market may give YouTube an advantage. 10. Activision Blizzard may appoint a new CEO Activision Blizzard (Activision Blizzard) CEO Bobby Kotick (Bobby Kotick) will become the chairman of this “emergency” video game publisher, a prestigious high Guan will replace him as CEO. One of the potential candidates for this CEO is Warner Media CEO Jason Kilar, who is expected to resign after Discovery completes the acquisition of Warner Media next year. Activision Blizzard may also choose a woman to serve as the CEO, partly in response to allegations of “sexual harassment and workplace discrimination” the company faces. And Sarah Bond, vice president of Microsoft Games Group, and Laura Miele, chief operating officer (COO) of Electronic Arts (EA), are two potential candidates. 11. Instagram may launch a children’s version application In September this year, Meta’s photo-sharing platform Instagram once announced that it would suspend the development of the “Instagram children’s version” service. Previously, the plan was strongly opposed by users and legislators, but Instagram did not completely kill the idea. Given that Meta needs younger users to survive (Zuckerberg recently stated that serving young people will be the company’s “North Star”), and Meta insists that its Messenger Kids product is a success. For this reason, Instagram is likely to relaunch the “Instagram for kids” service in some form later in 2022. 12. Amazon may increase the price of Prime members Amazon will increase the price of Prime members (US$119 per year in recent years). In order to prove its rationality, Amazon may use the fresh food service Amazon Fresh to talk about it, and launch more movies and sports shows on Prime Video. The big background will be inflation and the tightening of global supply chains. 13. Uber food delivery platform under investigation by FTC The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) will investigate the way food delivery companies such as DoorDash and Uber Eats treat restaurants and riders. In recent years, there has been a wave of consolidation in this field. The market power of DoorDash and Uber Eats has increased significantly, causing restaurants to complain about high fees and deceptive business practices, and workers are also dissatisfied with their wages and benefits. 14. The formation of an Amazon employee union is expected to be the first labor organizer to win the effort to form an Amazon employee union in the United States. This is also due to Amazon’s recent national settlement agreement with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). In order to overturn this result, Amazon will file a complaint with the NLRB. In Europe, corporate office communications software startup Slack and other companies have complained about Microsoft. This is strikingly similar to the antitrust regulation that Microsoft faced more than 20 years ago, when Microsoft was accused of using its Windows operating system to usurp the market position of Netscape’s web browser. 15. Snowflake will make a $2 billion acquisition of cloud data warehousing software company Snowflake will make at least $2 billion in acquisitions to fill the gaps in its product lineup, which is the software used to build and manage machine learning models. Possible candidate companies include DataRobot, Dataiku, and H2O.ai. M&A will help further strengthen Snowflake’s business. Currently, the company is already the fastest growing supplier in the data warehousing field. Data warehouse is a field designed for fast information retrieval and analysis in the database industry. 10 major emerging technology predictions 1. Metaverse In 1992, Neal Stephenson (Neal Stephenson) coined the term “metaverse” in his novel “Snow Crash.” Enter the persistent virtual world. People can meet up there, flirt, play games, buy and sell things, and do many other things. In 2022, it refers to the integration of video games, social networks, and entertainment to create new immersive experiences, such as inviting you to your favorite song at an online concert. Games such as Roblox and Fortnite are paving stones for this emerging media. Facebook has renamed itself Meta to seize this opportunity – and also to divert the attention of the outside world from its other troubles. 2. Virtual influencers are different from human influencers in that they will never be late when taking promotional photos, get drunk at parties, or grow old. This is because virtual influencers are computer-generated characters. During the “Double Eleven” period this year, the virtual beauty expert “Liu Yexi” turned out to detonate the Internet. Up to now, “Liu Yexi”‘s Douyin account has published 5 videos with over 8 million fans. The leading celebrity abroad is Miquela Sousa, people like to call her “LilMiquela. This fictional 19-year-old Brazilian-American has 3 million followers on Instagram. Virtual influencers have set off a boom this year. Capital has rushed into the game, and we can look forward to its development in 2022. 3. Brain-computer interface In April, Musk said on Twitter that a macaque is really using a brain chip to play video games through telepathy.” His company Neuralink implanted two sets of tiny sets in the monkey’s brain. Electrodes. The signals from these electrodes are transmitted wirelessly and decoded by a nearby computer, allowing the monkey to move the racket on the screen in a ping-pong game with just mind. Neuralink hopes to test its equipment on humans in 2022 so that paralyzed people can operate computers. Another company, Synchron, has been approved by U.S. regulators to begin human trials on a similar device. Its minimally invasive neuroprosthesis is inserted into the brain through a blood vessel in the neck. In addition to helping people with paralysis, Synchron is also exploring other uses, such as diagnosing and treating neurological diseases, including epilepsy, depression, and high blood pressure. 4. The new year of VR fitness is coming soon. Many small partners will be full of fighting spirit and make detailed exercise plans, hoping to exercise more, but they lack motivation. Virtual reality (VR) headsets allow people to burn calories while playing games. They can hit or split various shapes coming from their faces, or twist their bodies to avoid thick obstructions. During the epidemic lockdown, gyms closed one after another, and the powerful low-cost headset OculusQuest2 was released, making VR fitness more popular. An upgraded model of this headset and new fitness features will be launched in 2022. Will the killer application of virtual reality be fitness? 5. Telemedicine consultation with wearable health trackers has become commonplace. This May change the outlook of wearable health trackers such as Fitbit or AppleWatch. They are currently mainly used as fitness trackers, measuring steps, running and swimming speed, heart rate during exercise, etc. But analysts at consulting firm Gartner said the line between the consumption and medical use of such devices is blurring. Smart watches can already measure blood oxygen saturation, monitor ECG and atrial fibrillation. The new version of AppleWatch that is expected to be launched in 2022 may have new sensors that can measure glucose and alcohol content in the blood, as well as blood pressure and body temperature. RockleyPhotonics, which provides this sensor technology, calls its system a “wrist clinic.” Regulatory approval of such functions may take some time, but at the same time, not only users, but doctors will also pay more attention to data from wearable devices. 6. Quantum computing, an idea that only existed on the blackboard in the 1990s, has developed into a sky-high price competition among governments, technology giants, and startups: using the counter-intuitive properties of quantum physics to build a new type of computer. For certain types of mathematics, quantum computers can outperform any non-quantum machines that can be built to quickly process operations involved in cryptography, chemistry, and finance. But when will there be such a machine? One way to measure the power of a quantum computer is its number of qubits. In October of this year, the Pan Jianwei team of the University of Science and Technology of China successfully developed the 66-bit programmable superconducting quantum computing prototype “Zu Chongzhi 2.0”. At the same time, it successfully developed the “Nine Chapter 2” quantum computing prototype. IBM hopes to achieve 433 qubits in 2022 and 1,000 qubits in 2023. But existing machines have a fatal flaw: the subtle quantum states they rely on can only last for a period of microseconds. It will take many years to improve this. However, if at the same time existing machines can be made useful, then quantum computing may become a commercial reality sooner than expected. 7. After an extraordinary year of space travel, space travel has high hopes in 2022. In 2021, a series of efforts funded by billionaires will send civilians into space. In July, Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic reached the edge of space before Jeff Bezos’ blue origin. Both billionaires completed a suborbital journey in their own spacecraft. In September, Elon Musk’s SpaceX carried four passengers for a multi-day orbit around the earth. All three companies hope to send more tourists into space in 2022. In this year, the number of paying passengers entering space is expected to exceed the government hired security for the first time. It is not expected to fly again until the second half of 2022, and commercial services will begin in the fourth quarter. Blue Origin plans to increase flights, but it has not yet stated the time and number. SpaceX has reached an agreement to send tourists to the International Space Station. 8. Courier drones took longer than expected to take off, but the new rules that will take effect in 2021 will allow drones to fly higher and higher in 2022. Irish startup Manna has been delivering books, meals and medicines in County Galway, and currently plans to expand its services to other parts of Ireland and the United Kingdom. Google’s sister company Wing has been testing delivery in the United States, Australia and Finland, and it will expand the shopping mall home delivery service to be launched at the end of 2021. Bulgarian startup Dronamics will start using winged drones to transport cargo between 39 European airports. The question is, will the development of the drone express industry accelerate or decelerate? 9. Electric “flying” For a long time, the “flying taxi” has been called the “electric vertical take-off and landing (evtol) aircraft” in this emerging industry. It is no different from a pipe dream in people’s eyes. Now it is more and more like real Up. Several companies located in many parts of the world will step up test flights in 2022, with the aim of getting their aircraft certified for commercial use within the next year or two. California-based Joby Aviation plans to build more than a dozen five-seater aircraft with a range of 150 miles. The goal of Volocopter in Germany is to provide air taxi services for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Other competitors include Ehang, Lilium, and Vertical Aerospace. Watch out for the sky. 10.3D printed bone transplantation For many years, researchers have been exploring the use of 3D printed biomaterials to create artificial organs. The ultimate goal is to extract some cells from patients and create fully functional transplanted organs, solving the problems of long queues, matching tests and the risk of rejection for organ transplants. There is still a way to go to make fleshy organs. But bones are not that difficult. Two startup companies Particle3D and ADAM hope to print out bones that can be implanted into the human body in 2022. Both companies use calcium-based minerals to print and tailor the bones according to the patient’s CT scan. Particle3D’s experiments on pigs and mice found that within eight weeks after the transplantation, bone marrow and blood vessels began to grow inside the implant. ADAM said that its 3D printed implants will stimulate the growth of natural bones, and at the same time, they will gradually biodegrade and will eventually be replaced by the patient’s bone tissue. If all goes well, the researchers said that blood vessels and heart valves will be 3D printed next.

1.苹果谷歌被迫提供第三方支付

美国国会或将通过有针对性的反垄断立法,迫使苹果和谷歌允许相互竞争的支付提供商进行应用内购买,并增加监管机构的预算。

此外,更广泛的一系列法案,将迫使谷歌、苹果、Facebook 和亚马逊等科技巨头难以进行并购。

2.苹果公司或将收购某汽车制造商

其目的是获得汽车制造技能和规模,以开发和制造未来的电动和半自动汽车。

当前,苹果正在推进自动驾驶汽车技术,目标是最早于 2024 年推出一款电动汽车。有报道称,苹果正在拜访亚洲的供应链和汽车制造商,为 2024 年量产 Apple Car 电动汽车做准备。

3.Waymo 将上市

新的一年,谷歌母公司 Alphabet 旗下自动驾驶初创公司 Waymo 将申请上市,让员工有机会获得流动性,并提高公司估值。在 2021 年的最新一轮融资中,Waymo 的估值停滞不前,约为 300 亿美元。

IPO 后,Waymo 将成为该领域最大的自动驾驶上市公司,其他上市公司还包括市值 115 亿美元的奥罗拉(Aurora),以及市值约为 80 亿美元的自动卡车开发商图森未来。

4.特斯拉或将与中国电池制造商签署投资协议

特斯拉可能与一家中国电池制造商签署一项大型投资协议,这也是特斯拉迎合中国市场,并在电池需求不断增长的情况下,锁定供应的努力的一部分。

预计特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・马斯克(Elon Musk)将亲赴中国,并宣布成立合资企业、研发实验室或重大投资,效仿英特尔、高通和苹果等其他科技公司的做法。

 

5.微软难逃反垄断审查

当前一轮反垄断风暴向科技巨头袭来,但微软相对没怎么卷入。但在未来一年,这家软件巨头将面临更严格的审查。

6.亚马逊或将分拆 AWS 云业务

亚马逊最终将决定分拆 AWS 云业务。多年来,华尔街分析师一直呼吁亚马逊剥离其 AWS 云计算业务,但 AWS 业务前 CEO、亚马逊现任 CEO 安迪・贾西(Andy Jassy)总是对该想法不屑一顾。

如今情况或有变,部分原因是政府对亚马逊的监管审查日益严格。还有一个关键因素是,AWS 业务 CEO 亚当・塞利普斯基(Adam Selipsky)之前曾推动大数据公司 Tableau Software 上市,他也是一位贾西很信赖的副手。

7.比特币价格或将突破 10 万美元

2022 年,比特币的价格或将突破 10 万美元大关,打破目前 6.9 万美元的历史新高。尽管数字加密货币市场以其波动性而闻名,但人们对比特币的兴趣与日俱增。数字加密货币的广泛采用,应该会提振“这种最广泛持有的数字货币”(比特币)的价格。

此外,Avax 令牌的价格,也将从之前 146 美元的历史高点上涨一倍以上,达到 300 美元。

8.Meta 或收购某游戏工作室

Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms 将收购一个主要的视频游戏特许经营权,以及负责这一特许经营权的工作室。除了提供一款大型游戏来推动 Quest 2 VR 头盔的销售外,Meta 还将利用此次收购将 Quest 定位为微软、任天堂和索尼游戏机的替代品。

9.YouTube 或将推出 NFT 市场

YouTube 将推出一个市场,供创作者销售 NFT(非同质化代币)。在为其视频创作者提供赚钱方式方面,YouTube 一直是先行者。而且,由于公司面临着来自其他社交网络的更多竞争,率先推出 NFT 市场可能会给 YouTube 带来优势。

10.动视暴雪或将任命新任 CEO

动视暴雪(Activision Blizzard)CEO 博比・科蒂克(Bobby Kotick)将成为这家“四面楚歌”的视频游戏发行商的董事长,一名有声望的高管将接替他担任 CEO。这位 CEO 的潜在候选人之一是华纳传媒(Warner Media)CEO 杰森・基拉尔(Jason Kilar),后者预计将在明年 Discovery 完成对华纳传媒的收购后辞职。

动视暴雪也可能选择一名女性担任 CEO,部分原因是为了应对公司面临的“性骚扰和工作场所歧视”的指控。而微软游戏集团副总裁莎拉・邦德(Sarah Bond)和艺电(EA)首席运营官(COO)劳拉・米勒(Laura Miele)是两位潜在的人选。

11.Instagram 或推出儿童版应用

今年 9 月,Meta 旗下照片分享平台 Instagram 曾宣布,暂停开发“Instagram 儿童版”服务。之前,该计划遭到了用户和立法者的强烈反对,但 Instagram 并没有完全扼杀这个想法。

鉴于 Meta 需要更年轻的用户才能生存(扎克伯格最近表示,服务年轻人将是该公司的“北极星”),而且 Meta 坚称其 Messenger Kids 产品取得了成功。为此,Instagram 很可能在 2022 年晚些时候,以某种形式重新推出“Instagram 儿童版”服务。
12.亚马逊或将上调 Prime 会员价格

亚马逊将上调 Prime 会员的价格(这几年为每年 119 美元)。为了证明其合理性,亚马逊可能会拿生鲜服务 Amazon Fresh 说事儿,以及在 Prime Video 上推出了更多电影和体育节目。大的背景则会是通货膨胀和全球供应链紧缩。

13.Uber 外卖平台遭 FTC 调查

美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)将对 DoorDash 和 Uber Eats 等外卖公司,对待餐厅和骑手的方式展开调查。

近年来,该领域出现了一波整合浪潮,DoorDash 和 Uber Eats 的市场力量显著提升,导致餐馆广泛抱怨高昂的费用和欺骗性的商业行为,而工人们对他们的工资和福利也表示不满。
14.组建亚马逊员员工工会有望

劳工组织者或将首次赢得在美国组建亚马逊员工工会的努力,这还要得益于亚马逊最近与美国国家劳资关系委员会(NLRB)达成的全国性和解协议。为了推翻这一结果,亚马逊将向 NLRB 提出申诉。

在欧洲,企业办公通讯软件初创公司 Slack 等公司对微软的抱怨已堆积如山。这与微软 20 多年前面临的反垄断监管有着惊人的相似之处,当时,微软被指利用其 Windows 操作系统篡夺了 Netscape 网络浏览器的市场地位。
15.Snowflake 将进行 20 亿美元的并购

云数据仓储软件公司 Snowflake 将进行至少 20 亿美元的并购,以填补其产品阵容的空白,即用于构建和管理机器学习模型的软件。可能的候选公司包括 DataRobot、Dataiku 和 H2O.ai 等。

并购有助于进一步强化 Snowflake 的业务。目前,该公司已经是数据仓库(data warehousing)领域增长最快的供应商。数据仓库是数据库行业中一个专为快速信息检索和分析而设计的领域。
10 大新兴技术预测
1.元宇宙

1992 年,尼尔・斯蒂芬森 (Neal Stephenson) 在他的小说《雪崩》(Snow Crash)中创造了“元宇宙”一词,指的是一个可以通过特殊目镜进入的持久存在的虚拟世界。人们可以在那里碰面、调情、玩游戏、买卖东西,以及做其他许许多多事。在 2022 年,它指的是视频游戏、社交网络和娱乐的融合,创造出新的身临其境的体验,例如在一场线上音乐会中邀游在你最喜欢的歌曲中。Roblox 和堡垒之夜 (Fortnite) 等游戏都是这个新兴媒体的铺路石。Facebook 已将自己更名为 Meta 以抓住这个机遇–也是为转移外界对它的其他麻烦的注意力。

2.虚拟网红

与人类网红不同的是,虚拟网红永远不会在拍宣传照时迟到、在聚会上喝醉,也不会变老。这是因为虚拟网红是计算机生成的角色。今年“双十一”期间,虚拟美妆达人“柳夜熙”横空出世,引爆网络。截至目前,“柳夜熙”的抖音账号发布了 5 条视频,粉丝超 800 万。国外现在首屈一指的红人是蜜奎拉 (Miquela Sousa),人们喜欢叫她“LilMiquela。这个虚构的 19 岁巴西裔美国人在 Instagram 上拥有 300 万粉丝。虚拟网红在今年掀起了一股热潮,资本已争相入局,可以期待其 2022 年的发展。
3.脑机接口

4 月,马斯克在 Twitter 上表示,一只猕猴真的在用脑芯片通过心灵感应玩电子游戏”。他的公司 Neuralink 在这只猴子的大脑中植入了两套微小的电极。来自这些电极的信号以无线方式传输,由附近的计算机解码,使猴子能够仅仅用意念就在一个乒乓球游戏中移动屏幕上的球拍。

Neuralink 希望 2022 年在人类身上测试其设备,让瘫痪人士能够操作电脑。另一家公司 Synchron 已经获美国监管机构批准,开始对一套类似的设备进行人体试验。其微创神经假体通过颈部血管插入大脑。除了帮助瘫痪人士,Synchron 也在探索其它用途,例如诊断和治疗神经系统疾病,包括癫痫、抑郁症和高血压等。

4.VR 健身

新的一年即将到来,很多小伙伴会充满斗志,制定好详细的运动计划,希望自己能多运动,但又缺乏动力。虚拟现实 (VR) 头显让人们在玩游戏的过程中燃烧卡路里,他们可以击打或劈开扑面而来的各种形状,或利扭动身子以躲避厚碍物。疫情封锁期间健身房纷纷关门,同时功能强大的低价头显 OculusQuest2 发布,让 VR 健身变得更加流行。这款头显的一个升级型号和新的健身功能将于 2022 年推出。虚拟现实的杀手级应用会不会是健身?

5.可穿戴健康追踪器

远程医疗咨询已经司空见惯。这可能会改变 Fitbit 或 AppleWatch 等可穿戴健康追踪器的前景。它们目前主要用作健身追踪器,测量步数、跑步和游泳速度、锻炼期间的心率等。但咨询公司 Gartner 的分析师表示,此类设备的消费和医疗用途之间的界限正在变得模糊。

智能手表已经可以测量血氧饱和度、监测心电图和房颤。预计在 2022 年推出的新版 AppleWatch 可能带有新传感器,能测量血液中的葡萄糖和酒精含量,以及血压和体温。提供这一传感器技术的罗克利光子 RockleyPhotonics 称其系统为“手腕诊所”。此类功能的监管审批可能需要一段时间,但与此同时,不仅仅是用户,医生也会更关注来自可穿戴设备的数据。
6.量子计算

一个在 1990 年代只存在于黑板上的想法已经发展成各地政府、科技巨头和创业公司之间的一场天价竞赛: 利用量子物理学反直觉的特性来建造一种新型计算机。对于某些类型的数学,量子计算机可以胜过任何能被造出来的非量子机器,快速处理密码学、化学和金融中涉及的运算。

但这样的机器何时会有呢? 衡量量子计算机能力的一种方法是它的量子比特数。今年十月,中国科学技术大学潘建伟团队成功研制出 66 比特的可编程超导量子计算原型机“祖冲之 2.0”,同时,成功研制“九章二号”量子计算原型机。IBM 希望在 2022 年实现 433 量子比特,2023 年达到 1000 比特。但现有的机器有一个致命缺陷: 它们所依赖的微妙量子态只能持续以微秒计的时长。改善这一点将需要多年时间。但是,如果与此同时可以使现有的机器变得有用处,那么量子计算可能会比预期更快地成为一种商业现实。
7.太空旅行

在经历了异常亮眼的一年后,太空旅行在 2022 年被寄予厚望。2021 年,一连串由亿万富翁出资的努力将平民送入太空。7 月,理查德布兰森爵士的维珍银河抢在杰夫・贝索斯的蓝色起源之前率先抵达太空边缘。两位亿万富翁都乘坐自己的航天器完成了一次亚轨道旅行。9 月,埃隆马斯克的 SpaceX 运送四名乘客开展了一次为期多日的环绕地球轨道飞行。

三家公司都希望在 2022 年把更多游客送上太空。在这一年,进入太空的付费乘客有望首次多过政府雇安全,预计要到 2022 年下半年才能再次飞行,并将于第四季度开始商业服务。蓝色起源计划增加航班,但尚未说明时间和数量。SpaceX 已达成一项协议,要把游客送往国际空间站。

8.快递无人机

它们起飞所花的时间比预期更久,但 2021 年生效的新规则将让无人机送货在 2022 年越飞越高。爱尔兰创业公司 Manna 一直在戈尔韦郡 (CountyGalway) 递送书籍、膳食和药品,目前计划把服务扩展到爱尔兰其他地区以及英国。谷歌的姊妹公司 Wing 一直在美国、澳大利亚和芬兰测试送货,它将扩大 2021 年底推出的购物中心递送到家服务。保加利亚创业公司 Dronamics 将开始使用有翼无人机在 39 个欧洲机场之间运货。问题是,无人机快递业的发展会提速还是减速?

9.电动“飞的”

长期以来,“会飞的出租车”在这个新兴行业的内部被称为“电动垂直起降 (evtol) 飞机”,在人们眼里和白日梦无异,现在它越来越像是真的了。分布在世界多地的几家公司将在 2022 年加紧试飞,目的是在接下来的一两年内让他们的飞机获得商业用途认证。总部位于加州的 JobyAviation 计划打造十多辆续航 150 英里的五座飞机。德国的 Volocopter 的目标是为 2024 年巴黎奥运会提供空中出租车服务。其他竞争者包括亿航、Lilium 和垂直航空航天 (Vertical Aerospace) 等。留心看天吧。
10.3D 打印骨骼移植

多年来,研究人员一直在探索使用 3D 打印生物材料来创造人造器官。最终目标是从患者身上提取一些细胞并创造出功能齐全的移植器官,解决器官移植需要长久排队、做匹配测试和有排异风险的问题。

要制造肉质器官还有一段路要走。但骨骼就没有那么难。两家创业公司 Particle3D 和 ADAM 希望在 2022 年打印出可被植入人体的骨骼。两家公司都用钙基矿物质来打印,依照患者的 CT 扫描量身定制骨骼。Particle3D 在猪和小鼠身上的试验发现,在完成移植后的八周内,骨髓和血管开始在植入物内生长。

ADAM 公司表示,它的 3D 打印植入物会刺激自然骨骼生长,与此同时自身逐渐生物降解,最终被患者的骨组织取代。如果一切顺利,研究人员表示,接下来将会 3D 打印血管和心脏瓣膜。

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