美联储加息对比特币以太币等虚拟货币价格有何影响?

以太币今日行情 Ethereum – 以太坊价格行情,今日最新币价,实时走势图 https://cn.investing.com/crypto/ethereum

The United States has kept interest rates near zero by purchasing nearly $4 trillion of debt into the financial system for nearly seven years. Bitcoin has been in a zero interest rate environment since its birth, but this situation may will change. According to an analysis by Bitcoin company itBit, if interest rates are raised, the price of digital currencies may be affected.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a monetary policy meeting this week to consider whether to raise the benchmark interest rate. Most analysts don’t think the Fed will raise rates this week, perhaps until the end of the year.

According to the latest dot plot in the FOMC’s July summary of economic forecasts, all members of the committee expect the benchmark interest rate to rise by 0.50%-0.75% by the end of the year. By next year, this rate will eventually stabilize at 3%-4.5%.

Short-term interest rates are already on an upward trend, and with the call to raise interest rates imminent, investors are also bracing for the change, including those holding bitcoin assets, as the digital currency may take a hit.

If the Fed raises interest rates, the price of Bitcoin may be negatively affected, based on two assumptions:


1. The dollar is stronger

The U.S. dollar will benefit from this interest rate hike. The interest rate hike may lead to the return of funds to the U.S. market, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will rise, and the strong rise of the U.S. dollar may have an unfavorable impact on the price of Bitcoin. This long and the other disappears.

2. Speculative investments will decrease

Higher interest rates may reduce speculative investment. The spectrum of high-risk investments has changed due to rising interest rate expectations. At this stage, Bitcoin is still a speculative asset, so the large-scale outflow of funds to more stable and less risky investment areas may have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin.

But bitcoin investors need not worry too much. While the expected rise in the U.S. dollar may have an unfavorable impact on Bitcoin’s price, some fairly basic analysis suggests that the link between Bitcoin’s price and Fed rate hikes is not so close, as the market is always ahead of the news, Just as the global stock market fell sharply before, the price of Bitcoin did not rise but fell. The factors affecting the price of Bitcoin are very complex, so it cannot simply be considered that raising interest rates is bad, but must be analyzed in conjunction with the country’s micro-economic aspects.

US dollar rate hike is good for Bitcoin, still bad for Bitcoin

Bitcoin and gold are the same, both are a kind of capital contribution, the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike on gold and Bitcoin is the same, the following is the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike on gold:

The International Gold Council (WGC) claimed that the Fed’s rate hike may not have the unfavorable impact on gold prices that many people think.
The International Gold Council said in a report on Thursday that the link between gold prices and interest rates is more messy than it appears and more fragile than it has been in the past.
The association added: “Other factors affecting the price of gold, including some positively correlated with economic growth, focus on gold as an important diversification asset and a portfolio asset for risk management. This role is becoming increasingly important. , as stocks and bonds are likely to offer below-average yields over the next few years.”
Market speculation about when the U.S. may choose to raise interest rates has been intense over the past 12 months. The Fed has kept the federal funds rate close to zero since 2008.
While the Fed was initially expected to complete its first rate hike in a decade in June, a slew of mixed economic data, low inflation and dovish talk from Fed Chair Yellen on the rate of U.S. economic growth delayed the increase. timetable.
When the fed funds rate does rise, the general consensus is that gold prices will face heavy downward pressure as the planned cost of holding gold will rise, then prompting investors to turn to assets that provide yield.
According to the International Gold Council: “However, jewellery and technology demand accounts for nearly 60% of annual physical gold demand. There is a direct and active link between these markets and interest rates, whereby an improvement in the interest rate cycle is generally accompanied by an increase in the economy and an improvement in consumer spending.
According to the International Gold Council, Europe and North America account for only 17% of total global gold demand, and only 60% of that is investment-related.
Likewise, the notion that U.S. interest rate hikes are affecting gold prices is not as strong as it once was, as this is largely based on market analysis of gold price and interest rate performance during the 1970s and 1980s. At that time, the economic situation was very different than it is now.
According to the International Gold Council: “The gold market is also different. Over the past decade, gold demand in developed markets has fallen from more than 60% in the 1970s to less than 30%. U.S. interest rates are less sensitive to changes. Also, jewelry and skills demand is largely pro-cyclical.”
In terms of investment needs, gold will continue to be an asset for investment diversification.
“Even when nominal interest rates rise to 4%, gold has always been quite useful in diversifying a portfolio and reducing the risk of real interest rates,” the International Gold Council said.
According to the International Gold Council, real interest rates in the United States were still very low at that time and well below the threshold level. Real yields on 3-month and 1-year U.S. Treasury bills were -0.73% and -0.6%, respectively, as of Dec. 31.
The association said: “Rising interest rates will not improve the outlook for fixed income assets. At current yield levels, bonds may have limited upside and thus are not as effective as gold in mitigating equity risks. This helps to improve gold. demand, as some investors will use gold to cover bonds as they manage equity risk and diversify their portfolios.”

1. What is an interest rate hike?

The Fed’s role: to increase employment and stabilize the dollar price. The primary method: short-term interest rate hikes.

The interest rate refers to the Federal Deposit Rate, which is the overnight rate for interbank lending between banks. It can be simply understood as a faucet for liquidity in the market now. If the interest rate is increased, it is equivalent to reducing the liquidity in the market. Return liquidity to the Fed. To put it more simply, it is to bring back the hot money in the shopping mall.

2. What is the current interest rate situation?

Reason: The epidemic has no way to start work, cutting interest rates and releasing water will affect consumption, affect production, and make the wheels of the economy roll.

3. What is the theoretical impact of raising and lowering interest rates?

3.1 Microscopically, is it positive or negative for the entire cryptocurrency market?

Let’s start with the conclusion: bad.

Because if the Fed raises interest rates, most owners of cryptocurrencies will sell speculative products and invest in places where the rate of return is more stable.

3.2 Microscopically, how should we adjust our investment portfolio?

In “The Effect of US Monetary Policy Shock on Cryptocurrency Returns”, in fact, Crypto is also divided into types. Divided into three categories:

1. Currency in circulation – little impact

2. Protocol tokens – little impact in the short term

3. Decentralized App Tokens – Great Impact

How to distinguish which type of encrypted property you own?

1. Currency in circulation: Bitcoin and a token that slightly modifies the source code of Bitcoin to improve the transaction speed, handling fee and application experience of currency.

For example: BTC, LTC, XMR

2. Protocol tokens: tokens that use blockchain technology to complete specific data functions.

For example: Ethereum, Polkadot, ADA

3. Decentralized apps: that is, the tokens used by apps deployed on the blockchain: for example: Uniswap, Pancakeswap

4. When will interest rates rise?

Economist Mike Liang: It is unlikely to be lowered in two years, unless there is an international war. The timing of the increase is primarily based on inflationary pressures and vaccine conditions. Now is the starting point for the accelerated vaccination and the accelerated economic recovery, and if the US GDP growth this year is higher than expected, it will definitely directly raise the dollar. Generally speaking, at that point of time, interest rates will be raised by taking advantage of the situation. At this time, the price of U.S. Treasury bonds will drop, and the dollar will continue to strengthen. Mitigate microeconomic dangers. Therefore, the most likely time for interest rates to rise is the beginning of a small increase in Q4 this year or Q1 next year.

 

美国在长达近7年时刻里通过购买债款向金融系统输入近4万亿美元来将利率维持在零邻近,比特币自诞生以来,一向处在零利率的环境中,不过这一局面或许会发生改变。依据比特币公司itBit剖析,假如加息,数字钱银的价格或许将受到影响。
联邦公开商场委员会 (The Federal Open Market Committee 简称 FOMC) 将在本周召开钱银政策会议,参议是否进步基准利率。大多数剖析师以为美联储不会在本周加息,或许会推迟到本年年底。

依据 FOMC 7月份发布的经济预测概要中的最新点图,委员会的所有成员都估计到本年年底,基准利率会进步0.50%-0.75%。到明年,这一利率会终究安稳在3%-4.5%之间。

短期利率已经呈现上升趋势,而跟着加息号令的一触即发,出资者们也准备迎候此次改变,包含那些持有比特币财物的出资者,由于数字钱银或许会受到冲击。

假如美联储进步利率,那么比特币的价格或许会受到负面影响,这一假设根据以下两点:

1. 美元强势走高

美元将得益于此次加息,加息或许引发资金回流美国商场,美元汇率上升,而美元的强势走高或许会对比特币的价格发生晦气影响,由于二者价格走势一向呈反向联系,此长彼消。

2. 投机性出资将减少

利率上调或许会使投机性出资减少。由于加息预期的进步,高危险出资范畴已经呈现了改变。而现阶段,比特币仍然是一种投机性财物,因而资金大规模外流到更安稳、危险更低的出资范畴或许会对比特币价格发生负面影响。

不过比特币出资者也不必过于忧虑。虽然美元的预期走高或许会给比特币的价格带来晦气影响,但是一些相当基础的剖析暗示,比特币价格与美联储加息之间的联系并非那么亲近,由于商场总是走在消息的前头,就像此前全球股市大跌,比特币价格却不升反降。比特币价格的影响要素非常杂乱,因而不能简单地以为加息便是利空,而要结合国家的微观经济面来剖析。

 

美元加息对比特币利好仍是利空

比特币和黄金是相同的,都是一种出资品,美元加息的影响对黄金和比特币的影响是相同的,下面是美元加息对黄金的影响:

国际黄金协会(WGC)宣称,美联储加息或许并不会对黄金价格形成许多人所以为的晦气影响。
国际黄金协会在上周四的一份报告中称,黄金价格与利率之间的联系比表面现象愈加杂乱,而且比过去的联系愈加脆弱。
该协会弥补道:“影响黄金价格的其他要素,包含一些与经济增加呈正相关的要素,着重黄金是一种重要的多元化财物以及进行危险管理的出资组合财物。这一角色正变得日益重要,由于股票和债券在未来几年内或许供给低于平均水平的收益。”
在过去的12个月内,商场关于美国或许选择何时加息的猜测一向比较剧烈。自2008年以来,美联储一向将联邦基金利率保持在接近于零。
虽然美联储最初估计会在本年6月完成十年来的初次加息,但一系列好坏不一的经济数据、低通胀率以及美联储主席耶伦就美国经济增加率发布的鸽派谈论推迟了加息时刻表。
当联邦基金利率真实上涨时,普遍共识是黄金价格将面对沉重的下行压力,由于持有黄金的计划成本将上升,然后促使出资者转向供给收益的财物。
国际黄金协会表明:“但是,珠宝和技能需求占据了年度实物黄金需求的近60%。这些商场与利率之间存在直接的活跃联系,即利率周期进步一般伴跟着经济增加和消费开销进步。
国际黄金协会表明,欧洲和北美仅占全球黄金需求总量的17%,而且其中只要60%与出资有关。
相同,美国加息影响黄金价格的观念并不如以前那么强烈,由于这种情况在很大程度上是根据商场对20世纪70年代至80年代期间黄金价格与利率表现的剖析。在那个时候,经济情况与现在大不相同。
国际黄金协会称:“黄金商场也有所不同。在过去十年内,发达商场的黄金需求从20世纪70年代的逾60%下降至不到30%。新兴商场的黄金需求每年占有70%,而且对美国利率改变不太灵敏。此外,珠宝和技能需求在很大程度上是顺周期的。”
就出资需求而言,黄金将持续作为出资多元化的财物。
国际黄金协会说:“即使当名义利率上涨至4%,黄金在完成出资组合多元化而且减少实际利率的危险上一向是相当有用的。”
国际黄金协会表明,美国当时的实际利率水平仍然很低,而且远低于阀值水平。到12月31日,3个月期和1年期美国短期国债的实际收益率分别为-0.73%和-0.6%。
该协会称:“加息并不会改善固定收益财物的远景。在当时的收益率水平上,债券的上涨空间或许有限,因而,在缓解股权危险上并不如黄金有用。这有助于进步黄金需求,由于一些出资者在管理股权危险以及多元化其出资组合时将运用黄金弥补债券。”

 

1、什么是升降息

美联储的职责:进步就业率和安稳美元价格。首要手法:短期升降息。

息指的是联邦存储利率,即银行与银行之间的同业拆借隔夜利率。可以简单地理解为是现在商场上流动性的水龙头。若进步利率,相当于减少商场上的流动性。将流动性回回收美联储。更浅显地说便是将商场上的热钱回笼。

2、现在的利率处于什么情况?

原因:疫情没办法开工,降息放水影响消费,影响出产,让经济的车轮滚起来。

3、升降息理论上会有什么影响

3.1 微观上对于整个加密钱银商场来说是利好仍是利空?

先说定论:利空。

由于假如美联储加息,加密钱银的大部分拥有者会将投机性产品卖出,而出资再回报率更安稳的地方。

3.2 微观上咱们应该怎么调整自己的出资组合?

 

《The Effect of US Monetary Policy Shock on Cryptocurrency Returns》中说到,其实Crypto也是分类型的。分为三类:

1、流通钱银 – 影响不大

2、协议类代币 – 短期内影响不大

3、去中心化App类代币 – 影响很大

怎么区别自己手上拥有的加密财物属于哪种类型?

1、流通钱银:比特币和将比特币的源码稍作修改,来进步钱银的交易速度、手续费和运用体验的代币。

例如:BTC、LTC、XMR

2、协议类代币:运用区块链技能来完成特定数据功能的代币。

例如:以太坊、波卡、ADA

3、去中心化类App:也便是部署在区块链上的App所运用的代币:例如:Uniswap、Pancakeswap

4、利率何时回升?

经济学家Mike Liang:两年内不或许会调低,除非国际大战。而调高的时刻首要根据通胀压力和疫苗情况。现在正值疫苗加快接种,经济加快回复的起点,加上假如本年美国GDP增加高于预期的话,肯定会直接拉高美元。一般而言,那个时刻点,会借势进步利率,此时美国国债价格就会下降,美元持续走强,左右开弓吸引外资,顺手回购点国债。减轻微观经济的危险。所以,利率最有或许上调的时刻是本年Q4或明年Q1开端小幅上提。

 

以上就是 美联储加息对比特币以太币等虚拟货币价格有何影响?的全部内容

发表评论

后才能评论