BitMEX创办人:在宏观经济影响下,2022年加密市场(比特币/以太坊)可能有哪些走势?

「在过去几周里,我查看了我的整个加密财物组合。任何我不愿意添加仓位的狗屎币,我都抛掉了,剩下了比特币、以太坊以及其他一些在元世界 Token 和算法安稳币。」
(本文经授权转载自区块律动,原文请见)

原文标题:《 Maelstrom 》
原文作者: Arthur Hayes( BitMEX 创办人)
原文编译:吴卓铖,吴说区块链


Founder of BitMEX: Under the influence of the macro economy, what trends might the crypto market have in 2022?

 

“Over the past few weeks, I’ve looked at my entire crypto portfolio. Any shit coins that I didn’t want to add to a position, I dumped, leaving Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few other tokens in the metaworld and Algorithmic stablecoins.”
(This article is reproduced from Block Rhythm with permission, see the original text)

Original title: Maelstrom
Original author: Arthur Hayes (BitMEX founder)
Original translation: Wu Zhuocheng, Wu said blockchain

 

The most */*-most thought-provoking measure of the health of your portfolio is the annual return rate. As always, our goal is to maintain or increase the purchasing power of assets relative to energy costs. The essence of human civilization is to convert the potential energy of the sun and the earth into kinetic energy that supports our bodily functions and modern way of life.

Making money is not the goal, because money is just an abstract concept of motivation. The right way to measure your financial success is to identify how much motivation you are spending on your current lifestyle (use oil as an example below), and how much it will cost you in the future (of course this is hard to measure). Then, you need to ensure that your financial savings are adding up faster than your expected power consumption rate.

The market will not be suspended due to the bell at 12:01 am on January 1, 2022, and the income is compounded and channel-dependent in nature. Unfortunately, only a few trading days really matter. A brief example can illustrate this.

Back on January 1, 2020, when the world was still very simple, the global coronavirus frenzy had not yet occurred. The price of Bitcoin at the time was $7,216. And on the last day of the last */*-zui* of that good year, Bitcoin’s price *-* was $28,996, with an average annual return of 302%. Who Earns More, Bitcoin Investor Still Pfizer?

 

While that was an impressive annual return, it belied the turbulent market experience in mid-March. Let’s focus on March 2020.

Bitcoin went through a related moment on March 16, as the world discovered that the COVID-19 pandemic was real and devastating, and Bitcoin, along with all other dangerous assets around the world, was hit hard. A related moment is when everything in danger falls at the same time, and investors rush to sell everything in margin trading to add to the global hoard of money (now dollars) so they can repay their borrowings. All belongings are spared. Only when the dust settles and the fear dissipates will the property price *-* grid start moving again in more specific ways.

From January 1st to March 16th, the price of Bitcoin plunged 38%. Many people are stopped, either mentally or by force (a mental stop is when the price *-* price of an asset reaches a certain intrinsic pain point that forces you to press the “sell” button. Strong resistance A loss is when your leverage provider closes your position to save some collateral value).

 

The table above clarifies how good and bad the way depends on the outcome. The most */*-zui* important experience is that buying and selling on March 16th is by far the most */*-zui* important day of the year. Those very good traders who are tied to the trading spaceship have the opportunity to significantly improve their portfolio returns, from the low of the 16th to the end of the year, the return rate is 250 percentage points higher than the return rate of the investment from the beginning of January 1st .

If you are unfortunate enough to get out of the market on the 16th, but have the energy and financial resources to re-buy the market, the date you re-enter the position is extremely important. Bitcoin did not recover to January 1 levels until April 21. The longer you wait, the lower your 2020 compound rate of return.

Active traders have to show up on any day like March 16 and buy back shortly after selling a position to create a constant compounded rate of return.

For investors who are reluctant to watch Bitcoin 24/7, you need to build a portfolio that is convex in the face of a disastrous day like March 16. The right half of the curve, that is, the profit of rising price *-* price is greater than the loss of falling price *-* price, which is simply understood as making more and losing less).

The most */*-zui* most important mental hurdle to overcome is to throw away the concept of annual arithmetic rate of return and move to compound rate rate The above example illustrates the negative impact of compounding, if you don’t protect your chips on the downside, you can’t participate in the upside rally.

To do all of the above, you need to take the emotional factor out of your investment decisions and use a certain amount of leverage wisely. The former requires more skill than the latter, as it is very difficult to overhaul your investment philosophy (especially given that most investment literature focuses on arithmetic returns). To make matters worse, all trustees (i.e. fund managers) pay out bonuses on an annual basis.

If your fund manager loses all your belongings, the worst possible situation for them is temporary layoff, and if the market is going as he wants, then you have to pay them your money every year. Percentage of returns, which over time destroys your compounded returns. I don’t have a solution to the custodial problem, but just remember it exists and adjust your behavior accordingly.

The point of this Bitcoin price *-* history lesson is to comment on how I have configured my portfolio this year before I thought there was going to be a series of disastrous trading days like March 16, 2020. As usual, this has to do with the Fed reducing the growth of its balance sheet to 0% followed by one to three rate hikes in 2022.

I’ll start by commenting on why interest rates are so important, and then comment on how the aggressive short-term target rates set by central banks will cause the most pain for the world’s risky goods over a three- to six-month time frame. I believe the Fed and other lemming central banks around the world will have no choice but to keep printing money.

But at some point in the near future, domestic politics in many countries may require tightening monetary supplies to quell commoner dissent, as their food, housing, and transportation costs are rising, and rising substantially.

listen
When it comes to central banks, it is fashionable to be as transparent as possible about future actions. However, in the face of the remarkable data, the executives refused to admit that money printing was the cause of the inflation that ripped apart society. Since the Great Recession of 2008, those who do their bidding have amassed a lot of fiat. Those who care about fundamentals and other such bullshit are underperforming, don’t be silly, just buy this damn big market.

While policy changes frequently, the Fed is very clear about what they plan to do. “Transient” inflation has now been put in place, and the Fed has signaled that they think it’s time to use financial asset prices as a value to fight inflation for food, energy, and transportation. To this end, they decided to suspend bond purchases until March of this year, and if their “dot plot” is established, the first rate hike will occur between March and June.

Most market participants believed that Democrats would instruct the Fed to raise interest rates, and the Fed would do the same. Democrats will need to demonstrate their hawkishness on inflation to avoid being knocked out in November’s congressional elections. But there is no consensus on how short-term rate hikes will affect financial assets — that is, whether they will weather the storm or succumb to pressure.

Let’s forget the point of view of non-crypto asset investors, my reading of crypto asset investor sentiment is that they naively believe that the fundamental growth of the entire network and users will allow crypto assets to continue to rise unabated.

In my opinion, this portends a severe crash, as the detrimental impact of rising interest rates on future cash flows may prompt speculators and margin investors to sell or significantly reduce their holdings of crypto assets. I don’t deny that loyal diamond traders have been increasing their positions after the price *-* price plummeted. However, in a short period of time, this “iron powder” cannot prevent the price *-* price from showing a catastrophic drop. Remember, as long as there is a *-* price of 1 bitcoin at $20,000, then the */*-zui* final price*-* price is $20,000, even if there are 19 million bitcoins in the world It doesn’t matter if the coin is not bought and sold in the market. The most */*-zui* price *-* price is caused by the abandonment of marginal sellers, although the trading plan is small.

The most destructive effect of the most */*-zui* bid/ask price *-* the most*/*-zui* is the psychological impact on vulnerable traders, which will affect the liquidation of underwater positions by leveraged trading platforms. So don’t tell me all the crypto market OGs are busy buying the limit down; none of that matters when the fund manager destroys your position.

For more than a decade, crypto asset investors have been salivating over the entry of “organized” investors into the space. Now, they’re finally here, as the Bloomberg headline below suggests. Although the share of asset allocation is small, the fact that there are more satisfied followers from TradFi International has changed the situation.

“Billionaires Are Embracing Crypto in Case Money “Goes to Hell””

This article reviews how prominent CEOs and investors like Tom Peterffy (InteractiveBrokers) and Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) are holding Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a hedge against a fiat recession.

While the wealthy who run the big TradFi companies can withstand a severe drop in price, the lemmings that follow them can’t. The wealth management industry is more than happy to invest in crypto assets, and these overpaid knockoff chefs won’t lose their high-paying jobs as long as prices drop.

They do not trust nor allegiance to Lord Satoshi Nakamoto. Thus, if external conditions warrant a reduction in their crypto allocation, they will not hesitate to liquidate their positions – no matter how large the loss.

Organizational financiers are subject to the power of Eurodollars (dollars held outside the US domestic banking system). Essentially, the whole world is shorting the dollar. When the price of the dollar *-* falls, credit expands and financial goods are happy. When the price of the dollar rises, credit shrinks, and financial assets become gloomy. Check out Alhambra Investments’ blog for a more in-depth review of how the mall works.

The rate of change of the increase in money supply, that is, its first derivative, is the most */*-most important factor in determining whether an organizational investor is active or passive.

 

The white line is the U.S. M2 addition rate, with M2 added gradually in 2019. In March 2020, the Fed used its magic money-printing machine to nationalize the corporate bond market and rescue the U.S. Treasury market by bailing out a group of overleveraged macro hedge funds. This forms a jump-start for the M2. The Fed’s balance sheet increases, and as a result, the larger M2, the slower the growth rate (law of large numbers), and the U.S. government has not formulated sufficient fiscal spending to continue to accelerate money printing.

Now, the Fed speculates that the growth of its balance sheet will slow to zero. If they don’t reinvest the maturing bonds in their portfolio, their balance sheets will actually shrink. The ugly white arrow in the chart above shows the impact this may have on the money supply.

The yellow line is the price *-* price of Bitcoin/USD. Easing monetary conditions in the US must have affected the rapid (albeit delayed by several months) price rises. Bitcoin has been trading sideways since M2 added its block. If the M2 addition rate reaches 0% or even negative in the short term, the natural conclusion is that Bitcoin (without any incremental additions in the number of users or transactions processed through the network) may also be lower.

I could post more graphs depicting credit excitement in different countries, but they all paint the same picture. The villagers woke up because the prices of meat, vegetables, taxis, rent and other necessities were rising faster than their wages. Now their public enemy number one is inflation.

If domestic politicians around the world want to continue sitting on their hands, they have to pretend to do something. So now is the time for central banks to put on some musical, at least for a short time, they will be willing to loosen their balance sheets and return to positive interest rates that reflect various domestic economic realities.

benchmark property
Bitcoin is the cryptographic representation of money/power.

Ethereum is the decentralized computer of the internet.

In most cases, every other major crypto asset can be categorized as follows.

1. The Token bound to the Layer 1 protocol is expected to become the “next Bitcoin or Ethereum”. These networks are more scalable, can process more transactions per second, or are anonymous. For example, Monero is for Bitcoin, or Solana is for Ethereum.

2. The other type is to use the existing Layer 1 protocol as a Token to accomplish certain expected functions, such as Axie Infinity, which is a Token-based game that uses NFT assets residing on the Ethereum blockchain to make money.

A Token is either an attempt to be a better version of Bitcoin or Ethereum, or to use the power of both networks to create a new product or service.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have some fairly significant shortcomings, and if another crypto asset can replace either, its value will naturally explode. Anyone who discovers the aforementioned Token in advance will become a rich man with encrypted property.

There are many Layer 1s with high and rising hope premiums, but these protocols buy and sell based on expectations because the underlying principles of these protocols (such as the number of wallet addresses or paying in native tokens) compare to Bitcoin or Ethereum. The amount of practice buying and selling fees) is pale.

This does not mean that a particular coin cannot be a winner for a long period of time. However, we don’t care about the long term, we care about the next 3 to 6 months and the downside protecting our portfolio.

Regarding tokens that rely on the Bitcoin or Ethereum blockchain to perform their functions, these tokens (in theory) should not be worth more than the protocol they are built on. This is the difference between investing in general use and specific use of a skill

Different – General applications are more likely to provide iterative power for multiple successful specific applications, so general applications should be rated higher.

Although there is a large gap between the market capitalization of Ethereum and ERC-20 dAPPs, within the special time frame, the price of dAPPs will rise faster than Ethereum. Of course during the fall, the aforementioned dAPP will lose value faster than Ethereum.

That’s how I look at the world. Therefore, I benchmark all returns in my crypto portfolio to Bitcoin or Ethereum. I got into this crypto world by swapping fiat for bitcoin and ethereum, these tokens always lead a certain rally, and then

Then is the time to buy low and sell high. In the process, my Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings may increase.

If I believed that in three to six months, bitcoin and ethereum would trade *-* below $30,000 and $2,000, I would sell all my shit coins. This is because Bitcoin and Ethereum are the highest quality */*-zui* tokens, and they have fallen less than all their unproven competitors. Any specific application using Bitcoin or Ethereum will also experience a free fall of greater than 9.8m/s, and in a real crypto-assets hedging environment, these shitcoins could drop by 75% to 90%.

The trend of the TradFi system mainly depends on the fluctuation of Eurodollar capital, while the encrypted market may be based on Bitcoin and Ethereum. I don’t have hard data on this, but my hunch is that billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum are now being used as collateral, with holders depositing Bitcoin/Ethereum and getting USD in return.

Those dollars were used to buy belongings like cars or houses, as well as gold rush altcoins. If you think we are in a bull market and you already have a benchmark, as a trader, it makes sense to leverage and buy an altcoin, and if Bitcoin goes up another 10%, you can get a 10x gain.

Whether you’re buying junk coins or more SHIB, if Bitcoin or Ethereum drops 20% to 30%, you will be forced to sell and raise Bitcoin or Ethereum to avoid being liquidated. The shortening of benchmark asset fiat prices will cause some margin traders to desperately sell their altcoin positions regardless of whether they are making money or not. This is the reason for the lowest price *-* price influenced by weak sellers on the edge.

It doesn’t take much marginal selling pressure to burst this bubble. Those ridiculously high Farming APYs from CTMD, once the shit coins start shitting, everyone will exit to make a profit. Even if only a small group of traders leveraged many altcoins, because of the lack of liquidity of these coins, it would be difficult to find large buying orders in the process of falling. Remember, the gate goes in, the small gate goes out.

time axis
What if I am wrong? What will happen to my portfolio if the bull market in the crypto market continues without a big drop?

1. March to June
During this time, the Fed will either raise rates or not. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates, and they will only despair if one of three things happens.

1. The consumer price index (CPI) growth rate fell below 2%. Given that the index is “managed” by government statisticians, this is almost impossible to produce. But if the CPI trend falls sharply and the political pressure from voters dissipates, the Fed may be able to reveal a reversal.

2. Parts of the extremely complex and opaque money market and Treasury market will collapse. You’ll know it when you see it — it’s the one thing the Fed fears the most. Given that all of TradFi’s assets are valued based on the prices of the U.S. currency market, the Fed must do whatever it takes to keep this market working in an orderly manner. Normally, the recovery order requires a lot of printed money.

3. Inflation is no longer the number one concern for American voters ahead of the November election.

Of these three situations, I think the second is the most likely */*-zui*. No one can guess what will happen to the currency/treasury bond market when the Fed stops supplying funds. There are so many levers embedded in the system that it is impossible to know whether methadone will kill addicts.

Given the law of large numbers, a simple resumption of the previous trend in property purchases would not result in a sudden sharp acceleration in the increase in the supply of money. So while risky assets will be rejoicing, including crypto assets, the */*-best case scenario is for asset purchases to slowly climb toward their once-all-time highs. Even if this happens, the only way for the crypto market to rise is for the Fed to openly turn on the faucet and fiat to flow to cryptocurrencies.

If this happens, there will be enough time to sell fiat, add to your total crypto holdings, or move on the crypto risk curve by adding to your altcoin holdings. You always go up the stairs and go down the elevator.

If I’m wrong, I won’t suffer a major short-term loss as the crypto market recovers higher. Persistence is not going to be of much value.

2. From June
Assuming I’m right and the Fed raises rates at least once before the June meeting, if any of the following happens, the Fed will suddenly cut rates to zero and start at a faster pace than Usain Bolt Money printing machine.

1. The S&P falls 20% to 30% from its all-time high (arrived in the first half of 2022). Whether you’re a net exporter to Asia or Europe, or a gifted American, you probably own a huge amount of U.S. stocks. The U.S. stock market is the */*-zui* best performing stock market in the developed world, and it is also the */*-zui* largest and most */*-zui* liquid. There are too many rich people paying taxes and spending arbitrarily, and the Fed won’t let them despair if the stock market is in severe turmoil.

Another interesting reflex fact is that the conventional wisdom of sticking to a six-for-four equity-bond portfolio means that if 60% of stocks fall, a fund manager with a rare trillion dollars will have to sell bonds to keep that share, which is completely is written in the command.

So if the Fed allows stock prices to fall, it will increase the federal government’s borrowing costs — because yields rise as bond prices fall — at a time when the government is facing record deficits.

2. Parts of the extremely complex and opaque money market and Treasury market will collapse.

3. The election for November 2022 is now complete.

The */*-zui* worst case scenario is that after November the partisans are back in action. Neither party in the US actually wants to stop the rise in commodity prices. Both parties have proven their worth by shouting to the international: “I’m in power and the S&P 500 is up!” That makes everyone gifted and your gifted donors happy.

After the commoners go through the dramatic process of voting and expressing their dissatisfaction with soaring living costs, they can be forgotten until the next election. The government will continue to print money to raise the price of financial assets. This is the American form of business, and because of the structure of the global economy, it is necessary to protect this form.

disorder
I am not actively buying or selling around my position. My goal is to build a portfolio that I think will be able to participate in the upside while limiting losses on the downside. As I mentioned before, if the return curve of my portfolio is convex, I do well.

While I’ve spent most of this post talking about the crypto asset side of my portfolio, I hope my long-term interest rate and FX options portfolio — through my exposure to volatility hedge funds — can make up for the crypto Any loss of property.

However, if I’m being honest with myself, I might need to add more so I’ll have enough Vega (Translator’s Note: a measure of the sensitivity of property prices to volatility changes) to be able to take a dip time to make a difference.

I don’t want to sit in front of a screen for hours on end staring at my bitcoin day in and day out, I don’t like that.

Some traders do this and are successful short-term traders, but these traders need to be very attentive. If you can’t or don’t want to be on call 24/7 to look after your crypto asset portfolio, don’t attempt to short-term trade.

As these ideas brewed in my head over the past few weeks, I was determined to act. I looked at my entire crypto portfolio. After a 75% drop from where it is now, I dumped any shit coin that I didn’t want to add to a position.

This leaves me with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few others in the metaworld and algorithmic Stablecoins. Position size is not determined by the notional amount you hold, but rather as a percentage of your total holdings. A position of 100 bitcoins is too big for some people and too small for others. Everything is relative.

Now, I am waiting. I’m still fully invested in my benchmark crypto asset. Your encryption benchmark may or may not be similar to mine. I gave you my reasons, and you should figure out why you think your benchmarks are useful in the context of your dynamic policy.

If Bitcoin price *-* reaches $20,000, or Ethereum price *-* reaches $1,400, then I will start to wonder if these crypto assets have dynamic value. These two prices *-* were previous all-time highs during the 2017 bull market, but that was the price of fiat *-*, if oil goes negative again, who cares about the price of fiat *-* the benchmark crypto asset whether to cut.

I hold the fiat currency, ready to welcome the straight candle. I’ve been buying and selling in this mall long enough to find the ultimate */*-zui* blow to the soul of a speculative bull market. While I’m confident in my ability to spot the bottom, I’ve also learned not to try to grab a knife that’s fallen. If you don’t have a bargain market, so what? Let the market heal and then buy at higher levels as the seller’s fringe trade is now complete.

Whoever sells first, sells the best */*-zui*. Now is the time to assess whether positive rates will seriously hurt your portfolio to buy more power. No matter how hard governments try to contain the fluctuations in the world, normal conditions are chaotic. We are disordered and disordered. BitMEX創辦人:在宏觀經濟影響下,2022年加密市場可能有哪些走勢? | Anue鉅亨 – 鏈文 (cnyes.com)https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4799721

对你的出资组合健康状况最*/*-zui*具心思冲击的衡量指标便是年报答率。一如既往,咱们的方针是坚持或进步财物相关于动力本钱的购买力。人类文明的本质便是把太阳和地球的势能转化为动能,支持咱们的身体机能和现代生活方法。

挣钱不是目的,因为钱只是动力的一个抽象概念。衡量你财务成功的正确办法是确认你现在的生活方法花费了多少动力(后文以石油为例),以及将来会花费多少(当然这很难衡量)。然后,你有必要保证你的财务储蓄的添加速度高于你的预期动力消耗速度。

商场不会因为 2022 年 1 月 1 日凌晨 12:01 的钟声而中止,收益在本质上是复合且途径依靠的(译者注:指价*-*格走势具有一定惯性)。不幸的是,只要几个买卖日是实在重要的。一个简略的比如能够阐明这一点。

回到 2020 年 1 月 1 日,当时国际还很简略,全球性冠状病毒的疯狂还没有形成。当时比特币的价*-*格为 7,216 美元。而在那美好一年的最*/*-zui*后一天,比特币的价*-*格为 28,996 美元,年均报答率为 302%。谁赚得更多,比特币出资者仍是辉瑞公司?

 

虽然这是令人形象深入的年报答率,但它掩盖了 3 月中旬商场阅历的剧烈动荡。让咱们聚焦 2020 年 3 月。

3 月 16 日,比特币阅历了一个相关时刻,跟着全球发现 COVID-19 大流行是实在且极具破坏力的,比特币和全球其他一切危险财物一同遭受重创。一个相关时刻是当一切危险财物同时跌落时,出资者在保证金买卖中急于卖出一切财物,以添加全球储藏钱银(现在是美元),以便他们能够偿还借款。一切财物,无一幸免。只要当尘埃落定、恐惧消散后,财物价*-*格才会再次开端以更特别的方法移动。

从 1 月 1 日至 3 月 16 日,比特币价*-*格暴降 38%。许多人被止损,不管是心思上的仍是强制的(心思止损是指当一项财物的价*-*格到达某种内涵的痛点,迫使你按下「卖出」按钮。强阻挠损是指你的杠杆供给商为保存一些抵押品价值而关闭你的头寸)。

 

上表阐明晰途径依靠成果的好与坏。最*/*-zui*重要的经验是,3 月 16 日的买卖行为是迄今为止一年中最*/*-zui*重要的一天。那些被绑在买卖飞船上的十分优异的买卖员有时机大幅进步他们的组合报答率,从 16 日的低点到年末的报答率比从 1 月 1 日开端出资的报答率高出 250 个百分点。

假如你不幸在 16 日离场,但具有从头买入商场的精力和财力,那么你重拾头寸的日期就极为重要。比特币直到 4 月 21 日才康复到 1 月 1 日的水平。你等候的时刻越长,你的 2020 年复合收益率就越低。

活跃买卖者有必要在任何类似 3 月 16 日这样的日子里呈现,卖出头寸后不久要马上买回来,这才干创造恒定的复合收益率。

关于那些不愿意全天候盯盘比特币的出资者来说,你有必要构建一个在呈现 3 月 16 日这样的灾难性日子时表现为凸性的出资组合(译者注:组合收益曲线表现为微笑曲线的右半部分,即价*-*格上涨的利润大于价*-*格跌落的亏损,简略理解为赚多赔少)。

要战胜的最*/*-zui*重要的心思障碍是扔掉逐年算术收益率的概念(译者注:即单利报答,用算术均匀的方法核算均匀收益率),而应转变为复合收益率(译者注:即复利报答,用几何均匀的方法核算均匀收益率)。上面的比如阐明晰复利的负面影响,假如你不在下行时保护筹码,那么就无法参加上行的反弹。

要做到以上几点,你有必要在做出出资决守时剔除情绪因素,明智地运用一定数量的杠杆。前者比后者需求更多的技巧,因为彻底改动你的出资理念是十分困难的(尤其是考虑到大多数出资文献都侧重于算术报答)。更糟糕的是,一切受托人(即基金司理)都是按年付出奖金的。

假如你的基金司理丢失了你一切的财物,对他们来说最*/*-zui*坏的状况便是暂时赋闲,而假如商场方向如他所愿,那么你每年还要付出给他们你收益的百分点,跟着时刻的推移,这会销毁你的复合收益。我没有保管问题的解决方案,但要记住它是存在的,并相应地调整你的行为就行了。

这堂比特币价*-*格历史课的含义在于,在我以为会有一连串像 2020 年 3 月 16 日那样灾难性的买卖日之前,就我本年怎么配置我的出资组合展开评论。像往常一样,这与美联储将其财物负债表的添加降至 0% 并随后在 2022 年加息一至三次有关。

我将从为什么利率如此重要开端评论,然后评论央行制定的活跃的短期方针利率将怎么在三到六个月的时刻范围内对全球危险财物形成最*/*-zui*大的痛苦。我信任美联储和其他国际各地的旅鼠央行最*/*-zui*终别无选择,只能持续印钞。

但在不久的某个时刻,许多国家的国内政治或许需求收紧钱银供给,以停息布衣的异议,因为他们的食物、住宅和交通本钱正在上升,并且是大幅度的上升。

听好了
说到中央银行,对未来的行动尽或许透明是一种时髦。然而在显着的数据面前,高层回绝供认,印钞是撕裂社会的通货膨胀的原因。自 2008 年的大阑珊以来,那些听命行事的人现已积攒了很多的法币。那些关怀基本面和其他类似废话的人业绩欠安,别犯傻了,赶紧买下这该死的大盘吧。

虽然方针经常改动,但美联储十分清楚他们计划做什么。 「暂时性」通货膨胀现在现已被放置,美联储现已暗示,他们以为是时分以金融财物价*-*格为价值来按捺食品、动力和交通的通货膨胀了。为此,他们决定在本年 3 月之前中止购买债券,假如他们的「点阵图」建立,第一次加息将在 3 月至 6 月之间产生。

大多数商场参加者信任,民主党人将指示美联储进步利率,而美联储也会照做。民主党人有必要证明他们在通胀问题上的强硬态度,以避免在 11 月的国会推举中被彻底打倒。但是,关于短期加息将怎么影响金融财物——也便是说,它们是会经受住风暴,仍是会在压力下屈从,人们对此还没到达共识。

让咱们忘掉非加密财物出资者的观点,我对加密财物出资者情绪的解读是,他们天真地以为整个网路和用户的添加这一基本面将使加密财物持续有增无减的上升。

在我看来,这预示着一场严峻的崩盘,因为利率上升对未来现金流的有害影响或许会促使投机者和保证金出资者兜售或大幅减持加密财物。我不否定价*-*格暴降后忠诚的钻石手在不断加仓,然而在短周期内,这种「铁粉」无法阻挠价*-*格呈现灾难性跌落。记住,只要有 1 枚比特币的买卖价*-*格是 2 万美元,那么最*/*-zui*终价*-*格便是2 万美元,就算国际上还有 1,900 万枚比特币没有在商场买卖也不要紧。最*/*-zui*后的买卖价*-*格是边沿卖家的放弃导致的,虽然买卖规划小。

最*/*-zui*后的买卖价*-*格最*/*-zui*具破坏性的影响是对脆弱买卖者的心思冲击,它会影响杠杆买卖平台对水下头寸的清算。因而,不要告诉我一切加密商场 OG 都在忙着买入跌停板;当基金司理销毁你的头寸时,这一切都不重要了。

十多年来,加密财物出资者一直对「组织」出资者进入该领域垂涎三尺。现在,他们总算来了,正如下面彭博社的标题所示。虽然财物配置的份额很小,但有满足多的来自 TradFi 国际的信徒使状况产生了变化。

「Billionaires Are Embracing Crypto in Case Money 『Goes to Hell』」

这篇文章评论了像 Tom Peterffy (InteractiveBrokers) 和 Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) 这样的闻名 CEO 和出资者怎么持有比特币和其他加密财物,以对冲法币的阑珊。

虽然经营着大型 TradFi 公司的有钱人能够承受价*-*格的严峻跌落,但跟随他们的旅鼠们却承受不住。财物管理行业十分乐意出资加密财物,只要价*-*格跌落时,这些收入过高的仿制品厨师不会失去他们的高薪作业。

他们不信任也不效忠于中本聪大人。因而,假如外部条件证明需求削减他们的加密财物分配,他们会毫不犹豫地清算他们的头寸——不管丢失有多大。

组织出资者受制于欧洲美元(在美国国内银行体系之外持有美元)的力量。从本质上讲,全国际都在做空美元。当美元价*-*格跌落时,信贷扩张,金融财物就会快乐。当美元价*-*格上涨时,信贷缩短,金融财物就会变得愁眉苦脸。阅览 Alhambra Investments 的博客,能够更深入地评论这个商场怎么运作。

钱银供给量添加的变化率,即它的一阶导数,是决定组织出资者是积派仍是消极派的最*/*-zui*重要因素。

 

白线是美国 M2 添加率,M2 在 2019 年逐步添加。 2020 年 3 月,美联储运用其神奇的印钞机,将公司债商场国有化,并经过救助一群过度杠杆化的宏观对冲基金来解救美国国债商场。这形成了 M2 的跳跃式添加。美联储财物负债表添加,成果 M2 越大添加速度越慢(大数规律),美国政府没有制定满足的财政支出来持续加速印钞。

现在,美联储猜测其财物负债表的添加将放缓至零。假如他们不对其出资组合中的到期债券进行再出资,他们的财物负债表实践上将缩短。上图中丑陋的白色箭头显示了这或许会对钱银供给产生的影响。

黄线是比特币/美元的价*-*格。美国宽松的钱银条件必定影响了价*-*格的飞速上涨(虽然延迟了几个月)。自从 M2 添加阻滞以来,比特币一直在横盘整理。假如 M2 添加率在短期内到达 0% 甚至负值,那么天然的结论是,比特币(在用户数量或经过网路处理的买卖没有任何渐进式添加的状况下)或许也会更低。

我能够贴更多的图表来描绘不同国家的信贷激动,但它们描绘的都是相同的画面。村民们醒悟了,因为肉、蔬菜、出租车、房租和其他生活必需品的价*-*格上涨速度超越了他们的工资。现在他们的头号公敌是通货膨胀。

假如国际各地的国内政客想持续坐享其成,他们就得假装做点什么。因而,现在是央行们演出一些歌舞剧的时分了,至少在短时刻内,他们会愿意放松财物负债表,回到反映各种国内经济现实的正利率。

 

基准财物
比特币是钱银/动力的加密代表。

以太坊是互联网的去中心化核算机。

在大多数状况下,其他每一种主要的加密财物都能够按以下方法进行分类。

1、绑定到 Layer 1 协议的 Token 有望成为「下一个比特币或以太坊」。这些网路具有更大的可扩展性,每秒能够处理更多的买卖,或者是匿名的。例如Monero 之于比特币,或Solana 之于以太坊。

2、另一类是运用现有 Layer 1 协议作为完成某些预期功用的 Token,例如 Axie Infinity,这是一个基于 Token 的游戏,运用驻扎在以太坊区块链上的 NFT 财物来挣钱。

一个 Token 要么是企图成为比特币或以太坊的更好版本,要么是运用这两个网路的功用来创造一个新的产品或服务。

比特币和以太坊都有一些适当显着的缺点,假如另一种加密财物能够取代其间任何一种,其价值天然会爆破。任何提前发现上述 Token 的人都将成为加密财物的有钱人。

有许多 Layer 1 具有较高且不断上升的希望溢价,但这些协议是基于预期进行买卖的,因为与比特币或以太坊相比,这些协议的基本原理(如钱包地址的数量或以原生 Token 付出的实践买卖费用的数量)是苍白的。

这并不意味着,在满足长的时刻内,某个特定的币不或许成为赢家。然而,咱们并不关怀长期,咱们关怀的是未来 3 到 6 个月,以及保护咱们出资组合的下行空间。

关于依靠比特币或以太坊区块链完成其功用的 Token,这些 Token(理论上)的价值不该高于它们所构建的协议。这便是出资一项技能的一般运用与详细运用之间的差异——一般运用更有或许为多个成功的详细运用供给迭代动力,因而一般运用应该得到更高的点评。

虽然以太坊和 ERC-20 dAPP 的市值之间存在很大的差距,但在特守时刻范围内,dAPP 的价*-*格上升速度会超越以太坊。当然在跌落过程中,上述 dAPP 将比以太坊更快地失去价值。

这便是我看待国际的方法。因而,我将我的加密财物组合中的一切报答都以比特币或以太坊为基准。我经过将法币换成比特币和以太坊来进入这个加密国际,这些 Token 总是引领某次反弹,之

后才是低买高卖狗屎币的时分。在这个过程中,我所持有的比特币和以太坊或许会添加。

假如我信任在三到六个月的时刻内,比特币和以太坊的买卖价*-*格会低于 3 万美元和 2,000 美元,我会兜售我一切的狗屎币。这是因为比特币和以太坊是质量最*/*-zui*高的 Token,它们的跌落幅度小于一切尚未被证实的竞争对手。任何运用比特币或以太坊的详细运用也将阅历大于 9.8m/s 的自由落体,在实在的加密财物避险环境中,这些狗屎币或许会跌落 75% 至 90%。

TradFi 体系的走势主要看欧洲美元本钱的波动,而加密商场则或许以比特币和以太坊为准。我没有这方面的确凿数据,但我的直觉是,现在有价值数十亿美元的比特币和以太坊被作为抵押品,持有者存入比特币/以太坊,并取得美元作为报答。

这些美元被用来购买比如轿车或房子之类的财物,以及淘金山寨币。假如你以为咱们正处于牛市,而你现已具有了基准,作为一名买卖员,加杠杆并购买一个山寨币是有含义的,假如比特币再涨 10%,就能够取得 10 倍的涨幅。

不管你购买的是垃圾币仍是更多的 SHIB,假如比特币或以太坊跌落 20% 至 30%,你将被逼出售财物并筹措比特币或以太坊,以避免被清算。基准财物法币价*-*格的缩短将导致一些保证金买卖商不顾一切地兜售他们的山寨币头寸,而不管他们是否在挣钱。这便是被边沿弱手卖家影响的最*/*-zui*后价*-*格的原因。

不需求太多的边沿抛压就能刺破这个泡沫。 CTMD 那些贼高的 Farming APY,一旦狗屎币开端拉屎,每个人都会退出以获利。即便只要一小部分买卖员以杠杆方法取得很多山寨币,因为这些币流动性缺乏,在跌落的过程中,也将很难找到规划较大的买盘。记住,大门进,小门出。

时刻轴
假如我错了呢?假如加密商场牛市持续下去而不呈现大的跌幅,我的出资组合会遭到什么伤害?

一、3 月至 6 月
在这段时刻里,美联储要么加息要么不加息。商场预期美联储会加息,假如产生三件事中的一件,他们才会感到绝望。

1、消费者物价指数(CPI)添加率下降到 2% 以下。考虑到这一指数由政府统计人员「管理」着,这几乎不或许产生。但假如 CPI 趋势大幅下降,来自选民的政治压力就此消散,那么美联储或许能够揭露反转趋势。

2、极端杂乱和不透明的钱银商场和美国国债商场的某些部分会溃散。当你看到它的时分,你就会知道——这是美联储最*/*-zui*惧怕的一件事。鉴于 TradFi 的一切财物都是根据美国钱银商场的价*-*格来估值的,美联储有必要不惜一切价值保证这个商场有序工作。通常状况下,康复秩序需求很多印刷钞票。

3、通货膨胀不再是美国选民在 11 月推举前关怀的头号问题。

在这三种状况中,我以为第二种是最*/*-zui*有或许产生的。没有人能猜测当美联储中止供给资金时,钱银/国债商场会产生什么。这个体系中嵌入了如此多的杠杆,以至于咱们不或许知道美沙酮是否会杀死毒瘾者。

鉴于大数规律,简略地康复曾经的财物购买趋势,不会导致钱银供给量的添加突然急剧加速。因而,虽然危险财物会欢天喜地,包括加密财物,但最*/*-zui*好的状况是,财物购买慢慢向曾经的历史高点攀升。即便产生这种状况,加密商场上升的唯一途径是美联储揭露打开水龙头,然后法币流向加密钱银。

假如这种状况开端产生,将有满足的时刻卖出法币,添加你的加密财物的总持仓,或经过添加你的山寨币持有量在加密财物危险曲线上移动。你总是从楼梯上去,然后从电梯下来。

假如我错了,跟着加密商场康复走高,我不会遭受重大的踏空丢失。坚持耐性不会有太大的价值。

二、6 月起
假设我是对的,并且美联储在 6 月会议前至少加息一次,假如呈现以下任何一种状况,美联储将突然把利率降至零,并以比尤塞恩•博尔特更快的速度开动印钞机。

1、标准普尔指数从其历史高点(2022 年上半年到达)跌落 20% 至 30%。不管你是亚洲或欧洲的净出口国,仍是赋有的美国人,你都或许具有巨额的美国股票。美国股市是发达国家中表现最*/*-zui*好的股市,它也是最*/*-zui*大和最*/*-zui*有流动性的。有太多的有钱人在交税和任意消费,假如股市呈现严峻动荡,美联储不会让他们绝望。

另一个有趣的反射性事实是,坚持六四开的股债组合的传统智慧意味着,假如 60% 的股票跌落,具稀有兆美元的基金司理有必要出售债券以保持这一份额,这彻底是写在指令里的。

因而,假如美联储答应股票价*-*格跌落,它将添加联邦政府的借贷本钱——因为跟着债券价*-*格跌落,收益率上升——而此刻政府正面临创纪录的赤字。

2、极端杂乱和不透明的钱银商场和美国国债商场的某些部分会溃散。

3、2022 年 11 月的推举现已完毕。

最*/*-zui*坏的状况是,11 月之后党派又开端行动了。美国的两个政党其实都不想阻挠财物价*-*格的上涨。两党都经过向国际喊话来证明自己的价值:「我在执政,标普 500 指数上涨!」这让每个人都很赋有,让你的赋有的捐助者快乐。

在布衣阅历了投票和表达他们对生活本钱飞涨的不满的戏剧性过程后,他们能够被遗忘,直到下一次推举。政府到时将持续经过印钞来举高金融财物价*-*格。这是美国的商业形式,因为全球经济的结构,这种形式有必要得到保护。

紊乱
我并不活跃围绕我的头寸进行买卖。我的方针是构建一个我以为能够参加上涨的出资组合,同时限制跌落时的丢失。正如我之前提到的,假如我的出资组合的报答曲线是凸性的,我就做得很好。

虽然我在这篇文章中大部分时刻都在谈论我的出资组合中的加密财物方面,但我希望我的长线利率和外汇期权组合——经过我对波动率对冲基金的出资——能够弥补加密财物方面的任何丢失。

然而,假如我对自己诚实的话,我或许需求添加更多,这样我才会有满足的 Vega(译者注:用以衡量财物价*-*格对波动率变化的敏感度),以便在跌落时有所作为。

我不想接连几个小时坐在屏幕前,日复一日盯着我的比特币,我不喜欢这样。

有些买卖员这样做,并且是成功的短线买卖员,但这些买卖员有必要十分专心。假如你不能或不愿意24 小时待命,照看你的加密财物组合,就不要企图进行短线买卖。

在过去几周里,当这些主意在我脑海中酝酿时,我决心采纳行动。我查看了我的整个加密财物组合。在从现在的水平跌落了75% 之后,任何我不愿意添加仓位的狗屎币,我都抛掉了。

这让我剩下了比特币、以太坊以及其他一些在元世界和算法 Stablecoin。持仓量大小并不取决你持有的名义金额,而是它们占你总财物的百分比。 100 枚比特币的头寸对一些人来说很大,而对另一些人来说太小。一切都是相对的。

现在,我在等候。我仍然彻底出资于我的基准加密财物。你的加密基准或许与我的类似,也或许不类似。我给了你我的理由,你应该想清楚为什么你以为你的基准在你的动力方针背景下是有用的。

假如比特币价*-*格到达 2 万美元,或者以太坊价*-*格到达 1,400 美元,那么我将开端怀疑这些加密财物是否具有动力价值。这两个价*-*格是此前 2017 年牛市期间的历史高点,但那是法币价*-*格,假如石油再次呈现负值,那么谁会在乎基准加密财物的法币价*-*格是否削减。

我手持法币,预备迎候笔直的蜡烛。我在这个商场上买卖了很长时刻,足以发现打破投机性牛市灵魂的最*/*-zui*后一击。虽然我对自己发现底部的才能很有信心,但我也学会了不要企图去抓一把掉下来的刀。假如你没有抄底商场,那又怎么?让商场痊愈,然后在更高的价位上买入,因为卖家的边沿买卖现已完毕。

先卖的人,卖得最*/*-zui*好。现在是时分评估正利率是否会严峻危害你的出资组合购买更多动力的时分了。不管各国政府怎么努力按捺世界的波动,正常的状况是紊乱的。咱们是紊乱、无序的。https://www.abmedia.io/20220110-maelstrom-arthur-hayes?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=20220110-maelstrom-arthur-hayes

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