BitMEX创办人：在宏观经济影响下，2022年加密市场(比特币/以太坊)可能有哪些走势？

Founder of BitMEX: Under the influence of the macro economy, what trends might the crypto market have in 2022?

 

“Over the past few weeks, I’ve looked at my entire crypto portfolio. Any shit coins that I didn’t want to add to a position, I dumped, leaving Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few other tokens in the metaworld and Algorithmic stablecoins.”
(This article is reproduced from Block Rhythm with permission, see the original text)

Original title: Maelstrom
Original author: Arthur Hayes (BitMEX founder)
Original translation: Wu Zhuocheng, Wu said blockchain

 

The most */*-most thought-provoking measure of the health of your portfolio is the annual return rate. As always, our goal is to maintain or increase the purchasing power of assets relative to energy costs. The essence of human civilization is to convert the potential energy of the sun and the earth into kinetic energy that supports our bodily functions and modern way of life.

Making money is not the goal, because money is just an abstract concept of motivation. The right way to measure your financial success is to identify how much motivation you are spending on your current lifestyle (use oil as an example below), and how much it will cost you in the future (of course this is hard to measure). Then, you need to ensure that your financial savings are adding up faster than your expected power consumption rate.

The market will not be suspended due to the bell at 12:01 am on January 1, 2022, and the income is compounded and channel-dependent in nature. Unfortunately, only a few trading days really matter. A brief example can illustrate this.

Back on January 1, 2020, when the world was still very simple, the global coronavirus frenzy had not yet occurred. The price of Bitcoin at the time was $7,216. And on the last day of the last */*-zui* of that good year, Bitcoin’s price *-* was $28,996, with an average annual return of 302%. Who Earns More, Bitcoin Investor Still Pfizer?

 

While that was an impressive annual return, it belied the turbulent market experience in mid-March. Let's focus on March 2020.

Bitcoin went through a related moment on March 16, as the world discovered that the COVID-19 pandemic was real and devastating, and Bitcoin, along with all other dangerous assets around the world, was hit hard. A related moment is when everything in danger falls at the same time, and investors rush to sell everything in margin trading to add to the global hoard of money (now dollars) so they can repay their borrowings. All belongings are spared. Only when the dust settles and the fear dissipates will the property price *-* grid start moving again in more specific ways.

From January 1st to March 16th, the price of Bitcoin plunged 38%. Many people are stopped, either mentally or by force (a mental stop is when the price *-* price of an asset reaches a certain intrinsic pain point that forces you to press the "sell" button. Strong resistance A loss is when your leverage provider closes your position to save some collateral value).

 

The table above clarifies how good and bad the way depends on the outcome. The most */*-zui* important experience is that buying and selling on March 16th is by far the most */*-zui* important day of the year. Those very good traders who are tied to the trading spaceship have the opportunity to significantly improve their portfolio returns, from the low of the 16th to the end of the year, the return rate is 250 percentage points higher than the return rate of the investment from the beginning of January 1st .

If you are unfortunate enough to get out of the market on the 16th, but have the energy and financial resources to re-buy the market, the date you re-enter the position is extremely important. Bitcoin did not recover to January 1 levels until April 21. The longer you wait, the lower your 2020 compound rate of return.

Active traders have to show up on any day like March 16 and buy back shortly after selling a position to create a constant compounded rate of return.

For investors who are reluctant to watch Bitcoin 24/7, you need to build a portfolio that is convex in the face of a disastrous day like March 16. The right half of the curve, that is, the profit of rising price *-* price is greater than the loss of falling price *-* price, which is simply understood as making more and losing less).

The most */*-zui* most important mental hurdle to overcome is to throw away the concept of annual arithmetic rate of return and move to compound rate rate The above example illustrates the negative impact of compounding, if you don't protect your chips on the downside, you can't participate in the upside rally.

To do all of the above, you need to take the emotional factor out of your investment decisions and use a certain amount of leverage wisely. The former requires more skill than the latter, as it is very difficult to overhaul your investment philosophy (especially given that most investment literature focuses on arithmetic returns). To make matters worse, all trustees (i.e. fund managers) pay out bonuses on an annual basis.

If your fund manager loses all your belongings, the worst possible situation for them is temporary layoff, and if the market is going as he wants, then you have to pay them your money every year. Percentage of returns, which over time destroys your compounded returns. I don't have a solution to the custodial problem, but just remember it exists and adjust your behavior accordingly.

The point of this Bitcoin price *-* history lesson is to comment on how I have configured my portfolio this year before I thought there was going to be a series of disastrous trading days like March 16, 2020. As usual, this has to do with the Fed reducing the growth of its balance sheet to 0% followed by one to three rate hikes in 2022.

I'll start by commenting on why interest rates are so important, and then comment on how the aggressive short-term target rates set by central banks will cause the most pain for the world's risky goods over a three- to six-month time frame. I believe the Fed and other lemming central banks around the world will have no choice but to keep printing money.

But at some point in the near future, domestic politics in many countries may require tightening monetary supplies to quell commoner dissent, as their food, housing, and transportation costs are rising, and rising substantially.

listen
When it comes to central banks, it is fashionable to be as transparent as possible about future actions. However, in the face of the remarkable data, the executives refused to admit that money printing was the cause of the inflation that ripped apart society. Since the Great Recession of 2008, those who do their bidding have amassed a lot of fiat. Those who care about fundamentals and other such bullshit are underperforming, don't be silly, just buy this damn big market.

While policy changes frequently, the Fed is very clear about what they plan to do. "Transient" inflation has now been put in place, and the Fed has signaled that they think it's time to use financial asset prices as a value to fight inflation for food, energy, and transportation. To this end, they decided to suspend bond purchases until March of this year, and if their "dot plot" is established, the first rate hike will occur between March and June.

Most market participants believed that Democrats would instruct the Fed to raise interest rates, and the Fed would do the same. Democrats will need to demonstrate their hawkishness on inflation to avoid being knocked out in November's congressional elections. But there is no consensus on how short-term rate hikes will affect financial assets -- that is, whether they will weather the storm or succumb to pressure.

Let's forget the point of view of non-crypto asset investors, my reading of crypto asset investor sentiment is that they naively believe that the fundamental growth of the entire network and users will allow crypto assets to continue to rise unabated.

In my opinion, this portends a severe crash, as the detrimental impact of rising interest rates on future cash flows may prompt speculators and margin investors to sell or significantly reduce their holdings of crypto assets. I don't deny that loyal diamond traders have been increasing their positions after the price *-* price plummeted. However, in a short period of time, this "iron powder" cannot prevent the price *-* price from showing a catastrophic drop. Remember, as long as there is a *-* price of 1 bitcoin at $20,000, then the */*-zui* final price*-* price is $20,000, even if there are 19 million bitcoins in the world It doesn't matter if the coin is not bought and sold in the market. The most */*-zui* price *-* price is caused by the abandonment of marginal sellers, although the trading plan is small.

The most destructive effect of the most */*-zui* bid/ask price *-* the most*/*-zui* is the psychological impact on vulnerable traders, which will affect the liquidation of underwater positions by leveraged trading platforms. So don't tell me all the crypto market OGs are busy buying the limit down; none of that matters when the fund manager destroys your position.

For more than a decade, crypto asset investors have been salivating over the entry of “organized” investors into the space. Now, they're finally here, as the Bloomberg headline below suggests. Although the share of asset allocation is small, the fact that there are more satisfied followers from TradFi International has changed the situation.

"Billionaires Are Embracing Crypto in Case Money "Goes to Hell""

This article reviews how prominent CEOs and investors like Tom Peterffy (InteractiveBrokers) and Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) are holding Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a hedge against a fiat recession.

While the wealthy who run the big TradFi companies can withstand a severe drop in price, the lemmings that follow them can't. The wealth management industry is more than happy to invest in crypto assets, and these overpaid knockoff chefs won't lose their high-paying jobs as long as prices drop.

They do not trust nor allegiance to Lord Satoshi Nakamoto. Thus, if external conditions warrant a reduction in their crypto allocation, they will not hesitate to liquidate their positions - no matter how large the loss.

Organizational financiers are subject to the power of Eurodollars (dollars held outside the US domestic banking system). Essentially, the whole world is shorting the dollar. When the price of the dollar *-* falls, credit expands and financial goods are happy. When the price of the dollar rises, credit shrinks, and financial assets become gloomy. Check out Alhambra Investments' blog for a more in-depth review of how the mall works.

The rate of change of the increase in money supply, that is, its first derivative, is the most */*-most important factor in determining whether an organizational investor is active or passive.

 

The white line is the U.S. M2 addition rate, with M2 added gradually in 2019. In March 2020, the Fed used its magic money-printing machine to nationalize the corporate bond market and rescue the U.S. Treasury market by bailing out a group of overleveraged macro hedge funds. This forms a jump-start for the M2. The Fed's balance sheet increases, and as a result, the larger M2, the slower the growth rate (law of large numbers), and the U.S. government has not formulated sufficient fiscal spending to continue to accelerate money printing.

Now, the Fed speculates that the growth of its balance sheet will slow to zero. If they don't reinvest the maturing bonds in their portfolio, their balance sheets will actually shrink. The ugly white arrow in the chart above shows the impact this may have on the money supply.

The yellow line is the price *-* price of Bitcoin/USD. Easing monetary conditions in the US must have affected the rapid (albeit delayed by several months) price rises. Bitcoin has been trading sideways since M2 added its block. If the M2 addition rate reaches 0% or even negative in the short term, the natural conclusion is that Bitcoin (without any incremental additions in the number of users or transactions processed through the network) may also be lower.

I could post more graphs depicting credit excitement in different countries, but they all paint the same picture. The villagers woke up because the prices of meat, vegetables, taxis, rent and other necessities were rising faster than their wages. Now their public enemy number one is inflation.

If domestic politicians around the world want to continue sitting on their hands, they have to pretend to do something. So now is the time for central banks to put on some musical, at least for a short time, they will be willing to loosen their balance sheets and return to positive interest rates that reflect various domestic economic realities.

benchmark property
Bitcoin is the cryptographic representation of money/power.

Ethereum is the decentralized computer of the internet.

In most cases, every other major crypto asset can be categorized as follows.

1. The Token bound to the Layer 1 protocol is expected to become the "next Bitcoin or Ethereum". These networks are more scalable, can process more transactions per second, or are anonymous. For example, Monero is for Bitcoin, or Solana is for Ethereum.

2. The other type is to use the existing Layer 1 protocol as a Token to accomplish certain expected functions, such as Axie Infinity, which is a Token-based game that uses NFT assets residing on the Ethereum blockchain to make money.

A Token is either an attempt to be a better version of Bitcoin or Ethereum, or to use the power of both networks to create a new product or service.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have some fairly significant shortcomings, and if another crypto asset can replace either, its value will naturally explode. Anyone who discovers the aforementioned Token in advance will become a rich man with encrypted property.

There are many Layer 1s with high and rising hope premiums, but these protocols buy and sell based on expectations because the underlying principles of these protocols (such as the number of wallet addresses or paying in native tokens) compare to Bitcoin or Ethereum. The amount of practice buying and selling fees) is pale.

This does not mean that a particular coin cannot be a winner for a long period of time. However, we don't care about the long term, we care about the next 3 to 6 months and the downside protecting our portfolio.

Regarding tokens that rely on the Bitcoin or Ethereum blockchain to perform their functions, these tokens (in theory) should not be worth more than the protocol they are built on. This is the difference between investing in general use and specific use of a skill

Different - General applications are more likely to provide iterative power for multiple successful specific applications, so general applications should be rated higher.

Although there is a large gap between the market capitalization of Ethereum and ERC-20 dAPPs, within the special time frame, the price of dAPPs will rise faster than Ethereum. Of course during the fall, the aforementioned dAPP will lose value faster than Ethereum.

That's how I look at the world. Therefore, I benchmark all returns in my crypto portfolio to Bitcoin or Ethereum. I got into this crypto world by swapping fiat for bitcoin and ethereum, these tokens always lead a certain rally, and then

Then is the time to buy low and sell high. In the process, my Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings may increase.

If I believed that in three to six months, bitcoin and ethereum would trade *-* below $30,000 and $2,000, I would sell all my shit coins. This is because Bitcoin and Ethereum are the highest quality */*-zui* tokens, and they have fallen less than all their unproven competitors. Any specific application using Bitcoin or Ethereum will also experience a free fall of greater than 9.8m/s, and in a real crypto-assets hedging environment, these shitcoins could drop by 75% to 90%.

The trend of the TradFi system mainly depends on the fluctuation of Eurodollar capital, while the encrypted market may be based on Bitcoin and Ethereum. I don't have hard data on this, but my hunch is that billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum are now being used as collateral, with holders depositing Bitcoin/Ethereum and getting USD in return.

Those dollars were used to buy belongings like cars or houses, as well as gold rush altcoins. If you think we are in a bull market and you already have a benchmark, as a trader, it makes sense to leverage and buy an altcoin, and if Bitcoin goes up another 10%, you can get a 10x gain.

Whether you're buying junk coins or more SHIB, if Bitcoin or Ethereum drops 20% to 30%, you will be forced to sell and raise Bitcoin or Ethereum to avoid being liquidated. The shortening of benchmark asset fiat prices will cause some margin traders to desperately sell their altcoin positions regardless of whether they are making money or not. This is the reason for the lowest price *-* price influenced by weak sellers on the edge.

It doesn't take much marginal selling pressure to burst this bubble. Those ridiculously high Farming APYs from CTMD, once the shit coins start shitting, everyone will exit to make a profit. Even if only a small group of traders leveraged many altcoins, because of the lack of liquidity of these coins, it would be difficult to find large buying orders in the process of falling. Remember, the gate goes in, the small gate goes out.

time axis
What if I am wrong? What will happen to my portfolio if the bull market in the crypto market continues without a big drop?

1. March to June
During this time, the Fed will either raise rates or not. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates, and they will only despair if one of three things happens.

1. The consumer price index (CPI) growth rate fell below 2%. Given that the index is "managed" by government statisticians, this is almost impossible to produce. But if the CPI trend falls sharply and the political pressure from voters dissipates, the Fed may be able to reveal a reversal.

2. Parts of the extremely complex and opaque money market and Treasury market will collapse. You'll know it when you see it -- it's the one thing the Fed fears the most. Given that all of TradFi's assets are valued based on the prices of the U.S. currency market, the Fed must do whatever it takes to keep this market working in an orderly manner. Normally, the recovery order requires a lot of printed money.

3. Inflation is no longer the number one concern for American voters ahead of the November election.

Of these three situations, I think the second is the most likely */*-zui*. No one can guess what will happen to the currency/treasury bond market when the Fed stops supplying funds. There are so many levers embedded in the system that it is impossible to know whether methadone will kill addicts.

Given the law of large numbers, a simple resumption of the previous trend in property purchases would not result in a sudden sharp acceleration in the increase in the supply of money. So while risky assets will be rejoicing, including crypto assets, the */*-best case scenario is for asset purchases to slowly climb toward their once-all-time highs. Even if this happens, the only way for the crypto market to rise is for the Fed to openly turn on the faucet and fiat to flow to cryptocurrencies.

If this happens, there will be enough time to sell fiat, add to your total crypto holdings, or move on the crypto risk curve by adding to your altcoin holdings. You always go up the stairs and go down the elevator.

If I'm wrong, I won't suffer a major short-term loss as the crypto market recovers higher. Persistence is not going to be of much value.

2. From June
Assuming I'm right and the Fed raises rates at least once before the June meeting, if any of the following happens, the Fed will suddenly cut rates to zero and start at a faster pace than Usain Bolt Money printing machine.

1. The S&P falls 20% to 30% from its all-time high (arrived in the first half of 2022). Whether you're a net exporter to Asia or Europe, or a gifted American, you probably own a huge amount of U.S. stocks. The U.S. stock market is the */*-zui* best performing stock market in the developed world, and it is also the */*-zui* largest and most */*-zui* liquid. There are too many rich people paying taxes and spending arbitrarily, and the Fed won't let them despair if the stock market is in severe turmoil.

Another interesting reflex fact is that the conventional wisdom of sticking to a six-for-four equity-bond portfolio means that if 60% of stocks fall, a fund manager with a rare trillion dollars will have to sell bonds to keep that share, which is completely is written in the command.

So if the Fed allows stock prices to fall, it will increase the federal government's borrowing costs -- because yields rise as bond prices fall -- at a time when the government is facing record deficits.

2. Parts of the extremely complex and opaque money market and Treasury market will collapse.

3. The election for November 2022 is now complete.

The */*-zui* worst case scenario is that after November the partisans are back in action. Neither party in the US actually wants to stop the rise in commodity prices. Both parties have proven their worth by shouting to the international: "I'm in power and the S&P 500 is up!" That makes everyone gifted and your gifted donors happy.

After the commoners go through the dramatic process of voting and expressing their dissatisfaction with soaring living costs, they can be forgotten until the next election. The government will continue to print money to raise the price of financial assets. This is the American form of business, and because of the structure of the global economy, it is necessary to protect this form.

disorder
I am not actively buying or selling around my position. My goal is to build a portfolio that I think will be able to participate in the upside while limiting losses on the downside. As I mentioned before, if the return curve of my portfolio is convex, I do well.

While I've spent most of this post talking about the crypto asset side of my portfolio, I hope my long-term interest rate and FX options portfolio -- through my exposure to volatility hedge funds -- can make up for the crypto Any loss of property.

However, if I'm being honest with myself, I might need to add more so I'll have enough Vega (Translator's Note: a measure of the sensitivity of property prices to volatility changes) to be able to take a dip time to make a difference.

I don't want to sit in front of a screen for hours on end staring at my bitcoin day in and day out, I don't like that.

Some traders do this and are successful short-term traders, but these traders need to be very attentive. If you can't or don't want to be on call 24/7 to look after your crypto asset portfolio, don't attempt to short-term trade.

As these ideas brewed in my head over the past few weeks, I was determined to act. I looked at my entire crypto portfolio. After a 75% drop from where it is now, I dumped any shit coin that I didn't want to add to a position.

This leaves me with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few others in the metaworld and algorithmic Stablecoins. Position size is not determined by the notional amount you hold, but rather as a percentage of your total holdings. A position of 100 bitcoins is too big for some people and too small for others. Everything is relative.

Now, I am waiting. I'm still fully invested in my benchmark crypto asset. Your encryption benchmark may or may not be similar to mine. I gave you my reasons, and you should figure out why you think your benchmarks are useful in the context of your dynamic policy.

If Bitcoin price *-* reaches $20,000, or Ethereum price *-* reaches $1,400, then I will start to wonder if these crypto assets have dynamic value. These two prices *-* were previous all-time highs during the 2017 bull market, but that was the price of fiat *-*, if oil goes negative again, who cares about the price of fiat *-* the benchmark crypto asset whether to cut.

I hold the fiat currency, ready to welcome the straight candle. I've been buying and selling in this mall long enough to find the ultimate */*-zui* blow to the soul of a speculative bull market. While I'm confident in my ability to spot the bottom, I've also learned not to try to grab a knife that's fallen. If you don't have a bargain market, so what? Let the market heal and then buy at higher levels as the seller's fringe trade is now complete.

Whoever sells first, sells the best */*-zui*. Now is the time to assess whether positive rates will seriously hurt your portfolio to buy more power. No matter how hard governments try to contain the fluctuations in the world, normal conditions are chaotic. We are disordered and disordered. BitMEX創辦人：在宏觀經濟影響下，2022年加密市場可能有哪些走勢？ | Anue鉅亨 - 鏈文 (cnyes.com)https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4799721

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