微软收买动视暴雪很突然，剖析师：687 亿美元才占微软估值 3%，不危害其它时机
Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard is very sudden, analysts: US$68.7 billion only accounts for 3% of Microsoft’s valuation, which does not affect other opportunities. On January 19, Microsoft suddenly announced last night that it would buy 68.7 billion US dollars (about 436.245 billion yuan). According to Blizzard, in order to complete the transaction, it will use 53% of its cash reserves, which is also the largest planned acquisition in Microsoft’s 46-year history.
Call of Duty Vontobel Asset Management analyst Peter Choi said he was surprised, given his firm’s large holding of Microsoft stock, worth $1.43 billion. But he’s not worried, saying: “$68.7 billion is only 3% of Microsoft’s valuation. If Microsoft wants money, it can get it, so I don’t think it will jeopardize other opportunities by trading.”
Satya Nadella has led Microsoft for nearly eight years. During this time, Microsoft has reduced its investment in the consumer sector, and now the company’s most dazzling business is the Azure cloud, which has a proportional gap with Amazon’s AWS. already shrinking.
Choi believes that Microsoft is concentrating on enterprise business, and this trend is not necessarily due to business changes. He said: “Microsoft’s direction is still enterprise and business-oriented, and making us more productive is the center. This is Microsoft’s ultimate mission. I think when Microsoft thinks about things outside the center, it will be more inclined to timing. Doctrine. Gaming is the proof, even though it’s already one of Microsoft’s key businesses.”
In 2001, Microsoft launched the Xbox game console, and under Nadella’s leadership, Microsoft’s game content production investment increased. Microsoft bought Mojang, the developer of Minecraft, for $2.5 billion. It also bought ZeniMax Media for $8.1 billion. Microsoft’s game studios increased from 15 to 23.
Before Activision Blizzard, Microsoft’s largest acquisition was LinkedIn, which was valued at $27 billion. At that time, LinkedIn released news that revenue growth fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell 44%, and Microsoft took advantage of the situation. Activision Blizzard was also swallowed by Microsoft when its shares fell.
Lawsuits, game delays, Activision Blizzard shares fall 23% in 2021.
In November 2021, Activision Blizzard informed analysts that Diablo 4 and Overwatch 2 would be delayed. Worse yet, the new game Call of Duty: Striker was mediocre.
In the third quarter, Activision Blizzard’s revenue growth rate was less than 6%, Microsoft’s growth rate was 22%, and the game industry was 16%. Activision Blizzard’s operating margin is about 40 percent, and Microsoft’s is about 45 percent.
Activision Blizzard has 400 million monthly active players to date. Microsoft’s treasurer has said that Microsoft is interested in buying “online assets” or communities formed by people. GitHub and LinkedIn are examples.
According to Choi’s analysis, Microsoft may want to add users to Game Pass. Choi said: “If you can stimulate the development of Game Pass, such as increasing the number of paying subscribers from 25 million to 50 million, then the acquisition will definitely make a lot of sense, so that different parts of the Microsoft ecosystem will have better room to grow. ”
After acquiring Activision Blizzard, Microsoft has the opportunity to acquire more gamers who are willing to pay, and they can help Microsoft increase the number of paid Game Pass subscribers.
1 月 19 日音讯，微软昨晚突然宣布以 687 亿美元（约 4362.45 亿元人民币）收买动视暴雪，为了完成这笔买卖，它要动用现金储备的 53%，这也是微软 46 年历史上最大规划的收买案。
Vontobel Asset Management 剖析师彼得・崔（Peter Choi）表示很吃惊，由于他所在的公司持有大量微软股票，价值 14.3 亿美元。但他并不忧虑，他表示：“687 亿美元只相当于微软估值的 3%。假如微软想要资金，它有能力取得，所以我并不以为它会由于买卖危害其它时机。”
萨提亚・纳德拉（Satya Nadella）已经领导微软将近八年，在这段时间内，微软已经减少了消费范畴的投入，现在公司最耀眼的事务是 Azure 云，它与亚马逊 AWS 的比例差距已经在缩小。
2001 年微软推出 Xbox 游戏机，在纳德拉的领导下微软游戏内容制造投入添加。微软收买了 Mojang，也便是 Minecraft 的开发商，价格高达 25 亿美元。它还以 81 亿美元收买 ZeniMax Media。微软的游戏工作室数量从 15 个添加到 23 个。
在动视暴雪之前微软最大的收买案是 LinkedIn，价格高达 270 亿美元。当时 LinkedIn 发布音讯，称营收增长未达预期，股价大跌 44%，微软顺势拿下。动视暴雪也是在股价跌落时被微软鲸吞的。
诉讼缠身，游戏推延，2021 年动视暴雪股价跌落 23%。
2021 年 11 月，动视暴雪告知剖析师，《暗黑 4》和《守望前锋 2》将推延发布。还有更糟糕的，新游戏《任务召唤：前锋》点评一般。
三季度动视暴雪的营收增速不到 6%，微软增速为 22%，游戏产业为 16%。动视暴雪的运营利润率约为 百分之四十，微软约为 百分之四十五。
到目前为止，动视暴雪还有月活跃玩家 4 亿。微软财务主管曾说过，微软对收买“网络财物”或许由人结成的社区感兴趣，GitHub、LinkedIn 便是范例。
Choi 剖析称，微软可能是想为 Game Pass 添加用户。Choi 说：“假如能刺激 Game Pass 发展，比如让付费订阅者从 2500 万添加到 5000 万，那收买无疑是很有含义的，如此一来微软生态系统的不同部分会有更好的发展空间。”
收买动视暴雪之后，微软有时机取得更多愿意付费的游戏玩家，他们可以帮微软添加 Game Pass 付费订阅者数量。